The Deadly Dance of the Eagle and the Dragon: Part 5 The Chinese Strategy

We can use the nine containment points America needed to act upon to assess Chinese progress with its' strategy:

1. Learn to respect and understand Chinese history and culture - the Americans continue to have a very poor understanding of their strategic competitor’s history, culture, and mindset, whilst the Chinese understand the American culture very well from a massive long cultural exposure. This is a profound weakness in not understanding one's enemy.

2. Stabilize the US Financial system, especially with respect to its debt burden - Whilst the US stock markets have soared, it has been funded by federal debt. Some argue that China’s debt is equally precarious. However whilst China’s debt burden is a domestic one, America’s is international and this makes it much more vulnerable.

3. Be prepared for a wave of Chinese innovation - The Chinese are now out-innovating the Americans, especially with respect to new weapons technologies. This potentially gives them the advantage in a revolution in military affairs that will give their forces a major edge in the future balance of power. Railguns are one such example.

4. Focus resources on containing China - China has expanded its global influence exponentially in the last decade due to its strategic vision, powerful economy and the lack of blocking action by America. The fortification of the South China seas, the debt colonialism in the Pacific which will open up new Chinese military bases and the huge influence China has built in Africa, coupled with the power on China’s industrial giants, has until now been barely challenged by America. The challenge has only just begun with Trump’s trade and technology war. This will inevitably escalate. Initially this will hurt China due to the export gap, but the unintended consequence will be the use of the unused manufacturing capability to create more weapons in the current arms race. Xi’s goal is to to transform China from an export economy to an internally driven consumer society independent of western markets and the gap is closing fast, at which point Trump’s trade strategy will be nullified.

The most powerful flagship of Chinese prowess is its space race, although it is not really ‘racing’ America as they never turned up to the party! Similarly to the space activities during the cold war, this is a race to militarise the high ground and control the surface of the earth from above. China is hell-bent on winning this “race”.

5. Develop a centralized resource strategy - China is unique in having such a system, and their thinking is a decade in advance of other nations. The belt and road system and the opening of the arctic routes are all essential mechanisms to facilitate the flow of commodities into China. Until the PLN can defeat the USN and its allies the land routes will remain vital to the strategic integrity of China’s economy. Whilst commodity prices are now near the low of their cycle, in the next seven years when prices go through the roof, a conflict will once against be fought over resources. Particularly those not already under Chinese control!

6. Counter the Chinese push back strategy against America - Whilst America has now awoken to China as a serious and dangerous competitor, its divisive Trump style leadership has fractured its alliances with long-standing allies. This is in an “own goal” in that the Americans have so far failed to push China back from its recent gains, leaving China the clear winner of this race.

7. Pay closer attention to Africa and Chinese aspirations to control it - American blindness has left Africa to China, which is now becoming firmly under its’ control. This allows China to freely access African natural resources. It is not too late but it is critical that America acts quickly with alternative investment to that offered from China.

8. Form new military alliances to counter direct Chinese military challenges - In this regard, America has forged Japan, India, Taiwan, and Australia into a powerful alliance. However, at the same time, Russia is now firmly allied to the Chinese camp thanks to Obama's narcissistic policies. Whilst regional government are aware of the arms race and Chinese threat, nations further afield are still very complacent. Britain, for example, would do well to learn from the Australians. Australia is now seriously fearful of the PLN. To the extent that it has initiated the largest navel build program in the history of the nation since WW2. Following the hostile reception that HMS Albion received from the Chinese recently, Britain has wisely committed their new carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth with American F35s to a power tour of the Chinese exclusion zones. Additionally Britain would do well to spend much more on its armed forces, increasing defence expenditure in emergency measures to 5%.

However, there is one area that China has played badly and this is their Nazi-like treatment of Tibetan and more recently the Muslim Urgurs. Over a million people are reported to be imprisoned for “reconditioning”. The magnitude of the problem has become so massive that finally, the Turks, who seek to lead the Middle East have spoken out. It is our belief that in time the Islamic nations will join the alliance against China. This would become an alliance of the “God-fearing” belief systems against the atheistic Chinese.

9. Expound a politically inclusive policy toward China - Ten years ago China would have welcomed such an advance. Now it has had a taste of greatness and its’ aspirations are to become nothing less than the worlds next superpower.

In closing lets make a leadership comparison:

President Xi is the most effective national leader in the world. He has been able to harness the nation to his vision of a new Chinese global empire.

In comparison Trump is a very weak second in this regard. This difference is exacerbated by Trump presiding over a fractious divisive America, whilsy Xi leading a homogenous and motivated Han Chinese nation.

The Chinese believe it is their birthright to rule the known world again. Indeed in a recent speech Xi extolled the virtues of building an “invincible” and “self-reliant” China. China’s state-controlled press is encouraging the idea that there is no point in negotiating with the US on trade because Trump’s tariffs are part of a strategy to “contain China,” stunt its development, and thwart its’ rise as a global power. In this they are perfectly correct!