The US Elections - Trump or No Trump?

The US Elections - Trump or No Trump?

Trump remains under pressure in an Election Year, which is of great concern. As an unconstrained narcissist, we should expect Trump to respond to pressure by becoming even more unpredictable. If any of you are in doubt as to the extreme nature of his condition then watch Trump's narcissistic performance with Netanyahu as his acolyte announcing the annexation of the Palestinian territories - an alarming display. Indeed it was   a clear demonstration of the arrogance of unconstrained narcissists and how they can be manipulated by other politicians who understand the effect of adopting an acolyte-like persona, as Netanyahu did to get what he wanted. Meanwhile, understandably Trump's actions have sent both the Palestinians and Arab league into a condition of outraged opposition.

Using our Five phase Life Cycle ,our analysis that in the last phase of decline of an Empire wealth distribution parties achieve dominance. Within that framework, Trump’s election was an anomaly, and was  a reaction to Obama's rapid eight-year power give-away. His promise of making America great again has not been achieved in reality, making him vulnerable. However, as a Narcissist, his power to project his view of the would with absolute belief onto voters, is his the greatest political tool. However, in decline reality has a strong probability of catching up and busting the delusional bubbles of Empires and their leaders.

Thus in the next November election, in all probability, if the current economic and geopolitical conditions were to be maintained, we expect a reversal back to the Democratic Party.  If we are correct in our predictions then a  reversal in the stock market will only reinforce this dynamic as Trump has tied his fortunes to that of the stock market as highlighted in The Demise of Trump and Rise of Bloomberg

The big question, however, is which path will the democratic party take in the election of its new leader? - a moderate like Bloomberg or Biden a more socialist version like Sanders. We have discounted Biden, as he was complicit in the Obamas years failures. Having initially favoured Bloomberg’s nomination as a capable moderate, by applying the principle that America will seek wealth distribution politics, we also have to be open to Saunders as he may yet prove to have the upper hand and be the next president as his policies personify the wealth distribution perspective. Most concerning is that if Saunders wins the presidency n he will use excessive debt to finance his new deal. That could be the trigger for the US sovereign debt crisis that we have been seeing the potential signs of in the price action. So definitely one to watch. Indeed Sanders's views that America can carry more debt to finance his social program echos the message of the UK's labour party post-WW2. Policies that only accelerated the inevitable end of the British Empire.

To summarise, We believe that even under current economic conditions, that Trump is unlikely to win the next election. However, with the added  impact of the expected  stock market fall pre-election, we believe the unlikely is all but inevitable. Implying that the democratic nomination will be the next president-elect of the United States.In that regard, our current prediction is that Sanders has the marginal upper hand over the moderates, the best  of which (in terms of our estimate of popularity) is Bloomberg.Time will tell!

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