When Denial Is Swamped By Reality

When Denial Is Swamped By Reality

Applying my theory of Human Anti Entropy, the Wuhan Virus is an agent of entropy that kills the weak and sick on an individual level. Whilst on a larger fractal, also causes the most harm to the empires that are old, as compared to the younger nations like China that have vast reserves of national energy. Thus this pandemic will test the national energy of all nations, but the surprise will be that the western nations in the long run, may well be worst affected, over China and its Asian cousins. 

The parallels between the Plague of Justinian (541-542AD) and its impact on the declining Byzantine Empire could have uncanny similarities to the Wuhan virus's impact on America and the EU. Time will tell.

Meanwhile, for those that are subscribers, our Arkent Scenario has predicted and tracked each of the dominos of the various sectors in the global financial markets as they have fallen. Today, every element of the market complex is reacting as we expected and predicted.

·         Oil and the commodity complex has collapsed in a demand slump

·         Precious metals and Bitcoin are rallying

·         Bond yields, especially in the US, are compressing to zero and beyond

·         The dollar is weakening

·         The stock markets have fallen in a wave one and bounced like a dead cat in a wave two, that demonstrated that the Fed put is dead

 

Meanwhile the virus is spreading across the globe, as we also predicted and global governments have all been manipulating the news flow. Notably China is still at a dead stop and we should all be asking what it took to stop 1.2 billion energetic Chinese? The reported numbers make no sense, especially when Wuhan doctors are reporting death rates higher than SARs which was 10%.

Meanwhile, evidence is growing that the death rate is, in reality, much higher than initially predicted, especially when health services are swamped. The WHO upped their estimate to 3.4% this week, and we have now been informed there is a second strain that has mutated to be more deadly.

The infection is global and the Western nations have no chance of arresting its spread. Indeed, they have acted way too slowly, whilst trying to keep their economies going, when they should have locked down totally five weeks ago and by locked down I really mean locked down Wuhan style. This link clearly shows the time sequence of the Wuhan virus's inevitable progression over time https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=unrooted&m=div as points become clusters that then link up to become bigger clusters.

So what next? The answer is simple: Acceleration. When reality swamps denial, everyone will rush for the same door at once.

Next week looks to be that watershed moment, when we will, with a high probability, see a market crash (a day that could see a fall greater than 10%, which could be as large as 25%) and a shift as the collective denial is washed away by the power of reality.

Thoughts on the rate of the Global Spread of the Virus.

My good friend Martin Schweighauser, has done an incredible job of modelling the spread of the Wuhan Virus over the past two months. We believe that all the world's governments are manipulating the data to keep their populations from panicking if they understood the true power of the Wuhan Virus.

We think it is time to start calling out countries for badly underreporting COVID19 cases or worse, not reporting at all. The manipulation of data is no doubt caused either by some combination of delayed reporting, miscategorisation and the failure to have sufficient testing kits available.

Some seem pretty obvious just by comparing then with other countries. The list of really big sinners that stand out in cases for under reporting (at 09:00 CET March 6th):

Country      Reported     Comment

India                    31          India with a of population 1.4 billion, only started "coming clean" early March

Hong Kong          108        Seems too low given China's proximity and being a busy crossroads for travellers

Taiwan                 45         Hmmm.... really? Not budged at all lately. Political finger pointed at the cross strait bully?

Brazil                   13          Zero until end Feb; slowly inching up, too slowly for such a huge country?

Philippines            5          For a population of 80 million?  In Asia? Duterte's manipulation machine?

North Korea          0          No news of any kind; a powder keg, we are guessing

Saudi Arabia         5          With Saudis being big travellers? We think not.

Indonesia             4           With population 200+million? With many Chinese who have links to mainland China?

Africa (all of it)  +/- 27        Yes, the entire continent! No one believes that; Egypt and Algeria account for >20

Latin America All) <20      Yes, sure.....

Venezuela            0           Maduro's socialist paradise is squeaky clean...; i feel sorry for many in that country

Russia                 5            At 3 for weeks; same old "lie and deny" games we know them for....

Some European countries were/are clearly lower than they "should have been" (POLAND, HUNGARY, CZECHIA (Czech Republic), ROMANIA) and have hastily been adding cases in the last five days (but not POLAND.... staying at 1) since they cannot keep their head in sand anymore.

Read my follow article Brace Brace Brace!

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