China's aggressive expansionist stance

1 September 2012 China demonstrated its aggressive expansionist stance specifically against Japan over the Senkaku islands. At its core this incident in which both sides have deployed patrol vessels to the island waters, is the confirmation that China does not plan to expand peacefully, but instead will take its economic power and invest in a blue water navy that has the singular purpose of protecting and expanding Chinese national interests.

Geopolitical events and markets do not correlate linearly

In the following six posts I shall attempt to review as briefly as possible the rash of geopolitical events of early September and their potential market impacts. September was the proof that geopolitical events and markets do not correlate linearly. It was a month when all the themes of my book BREAKING THE CODE OF HISTORY took a lurch towards the dark side and the risk premiums should have increased, as should have the volatility of the markets.

Why is there a man from Papua New Guinea on my Home Page?

After graduating, I became a seismologist with a company specialising in forming seismic cross-sections used in the search for oil deposits. The company had twenty crews at the time, stationed in sixteen countries across the globe, and I waited expectantly for news of my first posting. One night in October 1984, I was informed by telephone that I would be catching a plane the next day to join a new crew in the Sepik River Basin in Papua New Guinea, then, as now, one of the remotest jungle environments left in the world.

The lessons Of History should prepare us for present challenges

Never was this more apparent than with Winston Churchill. In every way he was a child of the British empire with his family placed right at the heart of the nation in an unbroken line back to his great great grandfather the first Duke of Mallbourgh. Born as John Churchill in 1650, he led the British army to a series of stunning victories at the start of the eighteenth century against French expansionary ambitions. Blenheim Palace was built by a grateful nation in commemoration and populated with images of bravery and victory that surrounded Winston as a boy.

History has been repeating itself since the dawn of Man, the key is can we see it in real time?

At the conclusion of the Third Punic War that finally ended in 146BC with the total destruction of Carthage at the hands of a Roman Army, its leader Scipio Aemilianus and his friend Polybius the Greek historian friend were witnessing the carnage as the smoke and flames rose from the city to the terrible sounds of its dying inhabitants.

A Pre-emptive strike on Iran?


Why did the Fed choose to go the unlimited QE route last week, risking opening Pandora’s  box with its implications of the dollar becoming a Fiat Currency  ? After all the ECB seems to have provided the solution that would hold back the anticipated disaster in Europe, and the Fed must know that more QE will not bring down unemployment?



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