June 2013


The new documentary that raises the question of whether  flight AA 587 out of New York was shot down on November 12th 2001 with the loss of 260 people by a missile (Manpad) is a timely reminder of a clear and present danger. It is also quite possible that security scares at London Heathrow might have been Manpad related as well.

The bubble has burst

The speech last night by chairman of US Fed, Ben Bernanke, confirmed our opinion that the May 22 stock market high was the peak of the bull period and that markets will decline precipitously for the rest of the year. We have never believed US growth statistics, especially with regard to any lasting positive effect for the middle-class America, and have viewed the current market rally as a clever manipulation  by a US government facing the reality of an empire in decline.

The popping of China's credit bubble

The model of the five stages of empire outlines how an empire in ascension will borrow from its own economy to fund its economic and military growth. This has been the case with China, in recent years, and it has created a massive credit bubble to achieve its expansionist objectives. Like all bubbles they always burst. From some historic examples of expanding empires they have sought to solve the problem by launching outwards in a phase of military expansion.

Seeking trust with an expanding power does not enhance security

US Navy invites Chinese Navy to 2014 RIMPAC exercises.  With such overt Cold War games being played the big question is why has China been asked to the 2014 RIMPAC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_RIMPAC) exercises that will allow it to watch first hand America’s best naval practices in the hope of better military to military relations....Has America lost the plot?

The Curious Case of Edward Snowden

The big question is do you believe in coincidence? Or putting it another way do you believe in coincidence when the Chinese are involved?

So that the reader can better appreciate and answer the question, I would like to lay out the follow sequence of events.

June 7th President Obama meets President Xi Jinping when the main item on the US agenda is to stop China's relentless cyber espionage.

Turkey's Aspirations

By using the logic and arguments set out in BTCH to understand  the rise and fall of empires gives us an appreciation of the five stages of empire. This process allows every region of the world to be classified, at any specific time, within one of these five phases. Thus it is possible to gain a grasp the mechanisms in play and predict the most likely outcomes for future geopolitical events.