March 2021

In our Global Forecaster Now or Never report summary, we used historical analogies to demonstrate the danger that Britain is now in, as it faces an expansive and aggressive China. The race to create radars with the sole purpose of creating an early warning system for the RAF from 1936 was both an act of brilliance and desperation, without which Britain would have surely lost the Battle of Britain.

The blockage of the Suez Canal by the 224,000 tonne (gross tonnage) Evergreen-operated container ship Ever Given, should be a major wake-up call as to the importance of the maritime strategic lines of communication, and the vulnerability of certain strategic choke points. A glance at the map of global trade routes below is informative. Although the exits from the South China Sea and the Malacca Straights have many choke points, there are several routing options if one choke point becomes constricted.