Brexit Part XXII: Brexit taking shape

When one considers the lightning and decisive change in power following the EU referendum, one can only interpret the shift as a massive affirmation of Britain's democratic process.

Although Teresa May disappointingly did not come out strongly in favour of either leave or stay, in what was the debate of a lifetime, she has certainly been decisive in her selection of a cabinet. History shows that after any civil war is concluded, the leader has to be strong enough to force the two once opposing sides to work together. So far, May has passed the first test and removed the old Cameron cronies and especially Osbourne with a ruthlessness that bodes well.

Next, she has reinforced her non-Brexit credentials by gathering all the key Brexit players except for the turncoat Grove. That exclusion was also a very sound decision and sent a message that loyalty is a valued commodity. May's selection of a cabinet full of Brexiters also means that the risks of Parliament trying to go against the will of the people have abated almost completely, as long as May commits Britain to the path of leaving the EU as soon as practical.

The move to place Boris as the Foreign Secretary was a masterstroke and we should not underestimate that the two worked closely together as Home Secretary and Mayor of London, so they know each other well. Addionally, Boris is no longer outside the tent of government looking in, but rather inside looking out. Such a transition in all probability will transform this maverick politician into one with a more conventional veneer. Most of all, it would not have been fair to exclude the man that led the campaign and won against the apparatus of government. Rather than speaking to the nation to decide a referendum, Boris will now address the nations of the world. Undoubtedly, his message will be that Britain now seeks a more influential position in the world unencumbered by the EU. Most importantly, Boris will no doubt expound that view with his inimitable confidence.

One of our pre-referendum predictions, that was made along with a vote to leave, was that the Conservatives would move to the right. However, at the same time they would be expected to expound a message of political and social integration that included everyone in the nation's aspirations, rather than only the few who benefited from the past Cameron administration. This has now come to pass with May’s inaugural speech and her choice of cabinet.

Lastly, the decision not to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was a wise move indeed, as it has allowed a swift change of power and will give the time, once the new cabinet has settled in, to formulate a plan that will optimise the best outcome for Britain. For those in the EU who hoped for a second referendum, May’s cabinet represents the certainty that Britain is leaving the EU and that it has not, as they predicted, immediately fallen into an economic black hole. Thus, Great Britain looks set to prosper in its new independent nation-state, so the challenge will be for the EU presidents to hold the EU together and mitigate the impending bankruptcy of Italy.

With the stagnation and imminent financial collapse of the EU, It will not be long before Britain becomes the EU's safe haven and the capital flows will reverse the pound's fortunes. At the same time, we should expect to see a quantum shift in the defence policy that is long overdue after decades of systematic and long neglect of our national defence.

There is no doubt that the world faces two to three years of a deflationary crisis that will affect the world’s economies. As ever, the weakest and most rigid nations’ economies will suffer the most, especially if they have poor inflexible leadership. However, Britain now has put in place capable leadership who can be responsive to global forces and adapt its economy to face the rapids ahead. As such, given the world’s outlook, Britain’s relative future compared to the other Western nations now looks bright.

I have no doubt that, using the algorithm in Breaking The code of History, in the decade ahead Britain is set to expand its economy and global influence in every sense on both a relative and absolute basis.



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