1.0 Why Do Humans Fight Wars?
My conclusion in Breaking the Code of History is that human systems fight over only one essential thing; resources. They may polarise their systems using national and religious themes, but the driving force is the availability of commodities needed to feed expanding systems (Nations and Empires). There are two key points on the commodity cycle that trigger conflict:
- The first is a Trough War (a supply glut), when the price of commodities drops to unsustainable economic levels for producers. Systems, such as Russia, then seek an external distraction from their economic woes to mute internal dissent and do so via initiating a conflict with another nation.
- The second is Peak War (a resource deficit), when two systems are competing for the commodity price increases, such that the perception of shortages moves economic resource competition to kinetic competition.
Going into this pandemic, the commodity cycle was/is near its 10 year B wave low on the K cycle. Thus, the most likely source of a flashpoint would emanate from a commodity producer such as Russia and/or Iran. My warnings as to this potential risk were detailed in COMMODITY ECONOMIES PART 1 - RUSSIA THE NEED FOR RAPPROCHEMENT WITH THE WEST, COMMODITY ECONOMIES PART 3-IRAN-OVEREXTENDED AND VULNERABLE and RUSSIAN WARNING SIGNALS.
Therefore, both Russia and Iran, though the latter less so, must be watched very closely in the weeks and months ahead for early and any signs of aggression. This is especially true as the Western nations are distracted by the impact of the Wuhan Pandemic. To deter any aggressive action, all of NATO’s armed forces should be placed in a heightened state of readiness. Due to the threats of the virus incapacitating members of the armed forces, this can be easily concealed so as not to alarm the public further. The mass transit of Russian Naval vessels around Britain in the North Sea and the English Channel over the past week is a perfect case study of Putin raising the threat level to test our responses.
However, this is not the only risk we face. There is the serious risk of a breakdown in global supply chains, especially in respect to food supplies. This risk will increase in proportion with the duration of the pandemic. Thus, the psychology of a global resource deficit might also become a widespread and significant risk. We are already seeing nations within the EU argue over access to medical resources, taking the process of structural devolution in the EU to new levels. This risk will need constant monitoring.
2.0 Are We At War?
Britain and most other nations on earth are under attack from a pandemic. This pandemic has resulted in an entropy tsunami that threatens to isolate and kill significant numbers of populations. The effects of this have closed down economies. In the worst-case, it may erode the very fabric of nations. This is especially true if a nation has low levels of collective anti-entropy. So yes, Britain and its NATO allies are at war with the Wuhan Virus. But, as mentioned above, there is also a risk of conflict with a desperate nation like Russia. With Russia in an economic slump, Putin is a leader like a rat in a corner. With nothing to lose and when faced with his people potentially turning on him, he may initiate conflict to divert attention from his failures in leadership.
However, there is one more component that has been playing on my mind; China's role in the Wuhan pandemic. I would like to note that Murrinations seeks to create realistic and grounded predictions of past, present and future events by being firmly rooted in science and logic rather than speculation. Thus, it was my initial assumption that the Wuhan virus came from the wet markets. However, this view changed with a combination of:
- Clear evidence on the incubation period that fitted the first criteria of a bio weapon.
- Coupled with the numerous accounts from labs around the world, including those from India, Austria, South Korea and now the UK that pointed to a decidedly unique structure in the DNA of the virus.
- A better understanding of exactly how the virus works and that its behaviour is perfect to stop and potentially destroy an economy, as we have seen to our cost.
- I have long since learned, using a mosaic intelligence gathering system, that there is never smoke without fire.
Additionally, I note that the Chinese would want to keep this quiet so as not appear to have transgressed the 1925 Biological Treaty. Simultaneously, Western powers would not want their populations excessively alarmed at this stage of the pandemic.
2.1 The Origins of the Wuhan Virus
In my book Breaking The Code of History, published in 2009, I predicted that the next great viral epidemic would originate from China. Sadly, I was correct. This gift from China either originated from the wet markets, which should have been closed down a decade ago as they have long been noted as a health risk to the origination of new viral strains, or almost definitely from the Wuhan biological labs with its creation being part of an illegal biological weapons program. Either way, the situation was compounded by the authoritarian states’ clamp down on news flow that was vital to contain the outbreak in its early stages. China has undoubtedly further compounded their guilt by lying about the number of infected people, as well as the number of deaths. They did and continue to do this in an effort to maintain an image of strength. But in doing so, China has lessened the impact of the Wuhan virus and the consequential warning signs to the outside world. China has also withheld information in the early stages of the spread, by failing to adequately warn fellow nations with the full facts of the power of this pandemic. Arguably, this has resulted in more casualties than there would have been otherwise. This deceit was no doubt intentional to ensure that the outside world suffered more than China. Such actions have allowed China to advance in its hegemonic objectives.
2.2 Is The Wuhan Virus a Biogenetic Weapon?
Why does the Wuhan Virus fit the profile of a genetically modified biological weapon? For a start, we should be very suspicious as we have never encountered anything like this virus before.
1. It possesses an asymptomatic incubation period of up to 14 days, meaning it is almost impossible to contain unless societies go into today's lock down. This is the very same lockdown that results in economical shutdown.
2. The virus itself is a nasty operator. It is highly infectious and surrounded by a layer of its own fat which makes it survivable and persistent on surfaces for hours and even days, allowing it to be transmitted by all forms of human contact. If that is not enough, it is an airborne agent that can be transmitted by water droplets from breathing (up to 2m away) and sneezing (up to 8m away). Concentrations of infected people create high viral loads that not only infect others but increase the rate of the infection where symptoms are accelerated to the point of life-threatening cases, even in the healthy.
3. Most notably, as a virus that humans do not have immunity to, it has a high level of infectivity. Once transmitted to the next human, it infects them with a very high certainty.
4. It’s lethality appears to be low when a patient is treated to a high standard of intensive care. However, despite the seemingly good news, this comes with a horrendous sting in its tail. Because it spreads like wildfire, it then creates massive waves of casualties that then overwhelm critical medical services. It generates soaring mortality rates of up to and possibly beyond 10% of those that require intensive care. However, many of the population will have lesser symptoms (though I can offer from my own experience these are not minor!).
5. There is one last mechanism we do not fully understand. This virus is an RNA Virus that mutates at an incredible rate as a result of human contact. Thus, the more people it infects the more mutations it will generate (as the charts below show). China only reported two mutations from the time it left its shores, one more lethal than the other. Now, there are hundreds of variations, perhaps accounting for differential symptoms in patients and differential mortality rates we are witnessing. The result is that the Wuhan virus, once outside the borders of the host nation, spreads in ever increasing numbers of new strains while tearing through the populations of multiple countries. This raises the spector of multiples simultaneous waves of infection, and populations that could be infected numerous times over. It is difficult to see how any economy could survive such an onslaught intact. However, we do still need more information on the potential impact of the expanding range of mutations of this virus and we will be covering this topic later in the week.
In summary, I believe that any bio weapons lab in the world, if they had created such a horrendous weapon, would consider that it would do enormous economic damage to any nation it fell upon. So, what are the chances this evolved from nature? Taking all the evidence into account I believe that there is a 95% probability that the Wuhan Virus is a Bio weapon. The recent legal claims for trillions of dollars that have started in America against China for the release of a bio weapon are notable with no chance of success. However, it does possibly suggest US intelligence agencies are raising the population’s awareness by proxy without trying to panic them.
2.3 Was the release intentional?
Our Working Hypothesis up to now has been that the Wuhan virus release from a government laboratory was either accidental (20%) or intentional (80%), as executed by a lab worker who had a grievance against the government or humanity as a whole and timed the release to coincide with the Chinese new year thus ensuing mass migration that would carry it around the world. However, we are now having to consider a third option having watched the progress of the virus in China versus the outside world; an intentional release mandated from the top of the command structure i,e Xi. The factors that must be considered are as follows.
2.3.1. Is There A Motive?
a. Under Xi, China has been and continues to be committed to becoming the dominant hegemony in the world. It must achieve this by the end of this decade before India becomes a competing power.
b. China’s Naval expansion has focused on becoming the 3rd great maritime power. However, it has suffered a major blow in the past sixth months. The F35B has been deployed on assault carriers to increase America’s carrier force to 20, in addition to another ten carriers operated by its allies. This is a number of carriers that China could never hope to match in time to gain control of the oceans. As discussed, this has forced China to focus on asymmetric programs. Please see LESSONS FROM THE HISTORY OF MARITIME HEGEMONIC CHALLENGE.
c. Trump has called out China’s hegemonic challenge and the ensuing trade war was having two effects. Firstly, this trade war constricted the Chinese economy that was highly leveraged with potentially worse damage then we appreciated to Xi’s political position. Secondly, it began the bi-furcation process of extracting China from the global trading system, reducing its market and forcing it into a different mindset.
d. There were and are strengthening alliances gathered around America to contain China, making it much harder to break out in the limited time frame of a decade.
2.3.2 The Context of the Changing Face of Warfare.
a. In the Cold War, both sides knew that if any weapon of mass destruction were used by the other, in the form of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, it would invite retaliation in the form of a nuclear strike. Such a clear deterrence structure preserved the peace.
b. Today, we have seen the growth of grey warfare, conducted constantly in the form of cyberattacks. Additionally, whilst we are on the topic of increased vulnerabilities, think of the effects from cyberattacks during the crisis that could shut down the Internet. The impact has the possibility to be horrendous.
c. This grey zone has extended to the use of chemical weapons in Syria and in the Novichok attack in Salisbury, England. Both of these never received retaliation in kind.
d. What was once the Cold War rule of Mutually Assured Destruction has been undermined by a lack of retaliation from the West. This has given way to Russia's policy of first use of nuclear weapons, using small tactical nuclear warheads against military concentrations. In short, every Cold War convention surrounding the use of weapons of mass destruction has been turned from definitive to grey. e. So, within that context, the use of a biogenetic weapon for economic advantage is not as implausible as it first sounds.If that was not enough to create alarm the publication of Unrestricted Warfare;China's master plan to Destroy America by Colonel's Qiao Liang and Wang Xiaangsui in 2007 should be as concerning to the West as was Commander Mahan's (US Navy) works should have been to the Royal Navy in the late nineteenth century.
2.3.3. Differential Effects
a. As per our theory of national levels of Anti Entropy, Xi could have been confident that the impact of the virus would have been greater on a non-centralized and decaying America than a disciplined vibrant and centralized China.
b. This is even more the case if the mutation theory above is taken into account.
c. Thus, the calculation could have been that by taking casualties initially, it would prevent any intentional counter attack as it gave China plausible deniability.
d. By closing the Chinese borders, could the pandemic outside be potentially more impactful with multiple strains compared to the initial outbreak in China?
e. The result would almost certainly be China increasing its relative power compared to America and advancing itself with the goal of becoming the global hegemon in the next decade.
2.3.4. How do we know?
a. That trouble is that it would be almost impossible to tell if an operation to release the virus was conducted from the top-down, using communications with a small team that then just happened to die in the pandemic.
b. China's increasingly vociferous propaganda to blame America for the outbreak does have some dark interpretations as well as increasing the levels of polarisation.
c. Our only indicator would be how China has been affected compared to the rest of the world over the next week s months and years. A swift recovery needs serious examination as to how they contained the secondary infection zones outside Wuhan so rapidly.
a. By suffering from the initial outbreak, China has plausible deniability of an intentional release.
b. The casualties such a strategy has inflicted on the Chinese people has a historical president if we cast our mind back a mere seventy years to Mao sacrificing 4 million ex-national soldiers in his army during the Korean war. This was fought for political and national advancement, the same motives for the possible intentional release of the Wuhan Virus.
c. The one very strong piece of evidence against any intentional release by the CCP leadership, is that the Wuhan Virus is RNA based and thus was always going to mutate. such as the initial strains sent out into the world would inevitably multiply and then eventually infect China with a move devastating evolution of the virus in the bounce back. Knowing that the CCP and Xi are extremely rational and calculating this makes the probability of intentional government release almost zero.
Britain faces pandemic and economic trauma. These factors alone demand a wartime government and economy. However, the many unknown risks, coupled with the question as to the source of the Virus, means that the only prudent action to go to a heightened state of full spectrum military alert. This should be done whilst retasking intelligence assets to gain the maximum information as to Russia intentions, and every aspect of Chinese behaviour. In addition to focussing on the nations resource chain security.
Whilst the intentional release of the Wuhan Virus is almost impossible to prove, Britain and NATO must act as if it was intentional until the effects of the pandemic have been mitigated and better understood. This means nuclear forces should be on a heightened state of alert. Where possible, key capabilities such as the Navy, Air Defence and rapid reaction forces should be isolated and under NBC protocols to ensure the virus does not degrade defensive capabilities.
With respect to China's release of the Wuhan Virus, words mean nothing whilst actions tell the true story. First we must watch the recovery of China and seek to understand how they did it. Secondly, we should watch Xi's political signals very closely. Indeed he has failed to be apologetic, but rather blamed America for the outbreak in Wuhan. But most telling is Xi’s policy of offering medical supplies to the world in return for the dropping of all US trade tariffs. This action demonstrates both how ruthless he is and what lengths he will go to in order to dominate the world.
The benign decade behind us has given way to one of potentially great peril.
In the meantime, Britain is right to place its economy on a wartime footing. On that subject, we will in out next Murrination be looking at Early warning systems and then Lessons from WW2 on Wartime economy.
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