Murrinations

Brexit XXI: Beyond Brexit

So, the all important question is "What happens next?".

Using the methodology within BTCH we would expect the following to unfold.

A political quantum shift to the right

Brexit Part XX: Brexit and the predictive accuracy of the BTCH principles

The core principle of Breaking the Code of History (BCTH) and the five stages of empire is that the first stage, regionalisation, cannot take place without a core nation with expanding demographics at its centre to act as an attractor/agglomerator. The EU, in contrast, has gone through a forced agglomeration with negative demographics in its core nations. This makes the EU inevitably doomed to failure and collapse. Interestingly, the almost unavoidable collapse of the EU was not publically debated, but widely recognised amongst the leavers.

Brexit XVIII: The EU referendum and the divorce process, Part II

So, the decision has been made by one party to leave the other. The path is now 50% completed and the agony of indecision over. However, it is now replaced by actions that in most circumstances are very tough to go through. But as Churchill used to say: "When you are going through hell, keep going."

The separation

Brexit XVII: The EU referendum and the divorce process, Part I

One of the core premises in Breaking the Code of History is that human behaviour is based on a series of fractals. Thus, individual, emotional and behavioural patterns are echoed by companies, nations and empires in their interactions with the world.

Brexit XVI: Debt and Europe today

Listening to the recent six-way ITV debate on the Brexit referendum, I thought that it brought into the open the key messages from each side of the debate. On the one side was the ardent and domineering energies of Amber Rudd, Labour's Angela Eagle and Nicola Sturgeon. The very same Nicola and hypocritical lady who sought independence for Scotland from Britain, but who advocates Britain staying in the EU?

Brexit Part XV: The death of democracy to applause

There is a powerful scene in Star Wars Episode III where the Chancellor Palpatine, having schemed and plotted to gain control of the galaxy, addresses the Senate of the Galactic Republic. In a powerful and emotive speech he announced the need for emergency powers to counter the separatist movement. Senator Padmé turns to her friend in horror and ushers the words ‘so this is how democracy dies, to rapturous applause’. Sadly, this is not just a story, but a pattern underlying many historical events. Germany in the early 1930s is one such example.

Brexit Part XIV: Protectionism

Like so many dynamics in the world, when it comes to global trading policies there are two polarised approaches.

On the one side, there is the doctrine of free trade, where governments reduce as much as possible the barriers to trade. On the other side there is the doctrine of protectionism which seeks to restrain trade between countries. Methods such as tariffs on imported goods, restrictive quotas and a variety of other government regulations are effectively designed to protect the domestic economy.

Brexit Part XIII: Brexit and beyond

Conventional methods of predicting the future are normally so inaccurate as to be worthless. Thus, any conjecture for the British economy made by our politicians and institutions like the Bank of England post-Brexit has very little meaning.

Brexit Part XII: What would Churchill really have thought?

Polls show that there is still a large group of the electorate that are undecided because the arguments are still not clear to stay or leave. Echoing this confusion, both sides have quoted Churchill’s hypothetical thoughts on Europe over the course of the referendum. In so doing, politicians are attempting to garner the legacy of Britain's greatest modern hero to their cause. This begs the question, if he were alive today which way would he have voted on 23rd June?

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