Murrinations

Brexit Part XV: The death of democracy to applause

There is a powerful scene in Star Wars Episode III where the Chancellor Palpatine, having schemed and plotted to gain control of the galaxy, addresses the Senate of the Galactic Republic. In a powerful and emotive speech he announced the need for emergency powers to counter the separatist movement. Senator Padmé turns to her friend in horror and ushers the words ‘so this is how democracy dies, to rapturous applause’. Sadly, this is not just a story, but a pattern underlying many historical events. Germany in the early 1930s is one such example.

Brexit Part XIV: Protectionism

Like so many dynamics in the world, when it comes to global trading policies there are two polarised approaches.

On the one side, there is the doctrine of free trade, where governments reduce as much as possible the barriers to trade. On the other side there is the doctrine of protectionism which seeks to restrain trade between countries. Methods such as tariffs on imported goods, restrictive quotas and a variety of other government regulations are effectively designed to protect the domestic economy.

Brexit Part XIII: Brexit and beyond

Conventional methods of predicting the future are normally so inaccurate as to be worthless. Thus, any conjecture for the British economy made by our politicians and institutions like the Bank of England post-Brexit has very little meaning.

Brexit Part XII: What would Churchill really have thought?

Polls show that there is still a large group of the electorate that are undecided because the arguments are still not clear to stay or leave. Echoing this confusion, both sides have quoted Churchill’s hypothetical thoughts on Europe over the course of the referendum. In so doing, politicians are attempting to garner the legacy of Britain's greatest modern hero to their cause. This begs the question, if he were alive today which way would he have voted on 23rd June?

Brexit Part XI: The polarisation process

In “Breaking the Code of History” I dedicated a whole chapter to the process that precedes arguments and conflicts, which I called ‘polarisation’. This process takes place as two people or groups compete over the same ground. Such a process is very clearly demonstrated today in the context of the Brexit debate; the following will be familiar.

Brexit Part X: The biases of UK demographics

In previous Murrinations we have discussed the two opposing energies of the Brexit debate that echo the 1642-1651 English Civil War.

On the one side, for the cause of status quo, there is the energy of fear:

• Fear of change

• Fear of the risk losing wealth

• Fear of stepping out of line within society’s social order

On the another side, is the energy of aspiration:

Brexit Part IX: The economic question

Listening to the hypothetical arguments from the UK government about the damage to the economy that Brexit will cause is an obvious attempt to sow fear. An argument that has reduced the credibility of its advocates. However, most of the electorate are naturally asking what is the realistic appraisal of our economy when we choose Brexit?

Brexit Part VIII: Will Brexit increase the chance of a world war?

Cameron yesterday made the rash statement that Brexit would increase the probability of WW3.

As one who has made the cause of war a major study, I have to say that this is a complete load of alarmist twaddle. His comments smack of desperation as Downing Street realises that they are losing.

The Trump presidency

Over six month ago, I predicted that a Republican president would win the next election in November and that Trump would be the Republican nomination. Thus, Trump would be the next president of America. Even up to a few weeks ago, very few people in the Western world agreed with such a prognosis. Interestingly, the disagreements were accompanied by the most profound emotional responses. However, last Thursday Trump became the official Republican candidate.

Brexit Part VII: a European power shift

Long-term stability in global geopolitics is ever only fleeting.

Millennia ago, the major states of ancient Greece and their alliances lived in a permanent state of flux, as the Athenians, Spartans, Thebans and finally, the Macedonians all vied for regional dominance.

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