Murrinations

Brexit Part XI: The polarisation process

In “Breaking the Code of History” I dedicated a whole chapter to the process that precedes arguments and conflicts, which I called ‘polarisation’. This process takes place as two people or groups compete over the same ground. Such a process is very clearly demonstrated today in the context of the Brexit debate; the following will be familiar.

Brexit Part X: The biases of UK demographics

In previous Murrinations we have discussed the two opposing energies of the Brexit debate that echo the 1642-1651 English Civil War.

On the one side, for the cause of status quo, there is the energy of fear:

• Fear of change

• Fear of the risk losing wealth

• Fear of stepping out of line within society’s social order

On the another side, is the energy of aspiration:

Brexit Part IX: The economic question

Listening to the hypothetical arguments from the UK government about the damage to the economy that Brexit will cause is an obvious attempt to sow fear. An argument that has reduced the credibility of its advocates. However, most of the electorate are naturally asking what is the realistic appraisal of our economy when we choose Brexit?

Brexit Part VIII: Will Brexit increase the chance of a world war?

Cameron yesterday made the rash statement that Brexit would increase the probability of WW3.

As one who has made the cause of war a major study, I have to say that this is a complete load of alarmist twaddle. His comments smack of desperation as Downing Street realises that they are losing.

The Trump presidency

Over six month ago, I predicted that a Republican president would win the next election in November and that Trump would be the Republican nomination. Thus, Trump would be the next president of America. Even up to a few weeks ago, very few people in the Western world agreed with such a prognosis. Interestingly, the disagreements were accompanied by the most profound emotional responses. However, last Thursday Trump became the official Republican candidate.

Brexit Part VII: a European power shift

Long-term stability in global geopolitics is ever only fleeting.

Millennia ago, the major states of ancient Greece and their alliances lived in a permanent state of flux, as the Athenians, Spartans, Thebans and finally, the Macedonians all vied for regional dominance.

Brexit Part VI: The Obama Card

Obama’s recent visit to the UK and his intervention into the Brexit referendum represents an unprecedented American interference in British politics and will be undoubtedly proven as poor judgment by Cameron to enlist his support.

Beware the hungry bear

The rather appropriately named 'Trough Wars' are characterised by a nation that finds itself in an economic and social trough. Such a nation chooses to distract its population by using military power to create an external threat and will ensure conflict to unite popular opinion in support of their leadership.

With low oil prices expected until 2018, Russia finds itself in just such a situation today, and we can only expect the severity of the economic impact to increase on its economy.

Brexit Part V: Project "Hope"

In sharp comparison, Boris Johnson’s choice of project ‘Hope’ is perfectly positioned to resonate with which will almost inevitably be the winning side of this referendum. At its core is the belief and confidence that Britain’s creativity and drive will be strong enough to chart our course through the waters ahead. Critically, the vote will end Cameron’s career as a centrist politician who followed the path of Blair abandoning his party's traditional policies by seeking power for power's sake in occupying the middle ground.

Brexit Part IV: Project "Fear"

Cameron’s project ‘Fear’ is an ironic choice upon which to base his campaign, as it casts him in the classical role of the archetype monarch who governs from a narrow power base with coercion rather than empowerment. His use of government powers to strangle the opposition only reinforces these characteristics.

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