A new model for Britain's Defence Forces: Part III Timing of the next potential major war

The concepts in BTCH explained that the majority of wars are always driven by the need for resources and thus related to the 54-year Kondratiev cycle. The new current cycle commenced in 2000, rallied until 2010, and is now in a deep correction until 2018 which will create severe deflationary pressures much as the 1929 Wall Street Crash did. However, it will then be followed by an extremely powerful inflationary rally into a spiked peak around 2025/2027.

A new model for Britain's Defence Forces: Part II Predicting future geopolitical risks to Britain

Human affairs are all about balancing our relationships, both on a personal level and geopolitically between nations. Changes to the equilibrium always have consequences for a relationship, some benign, and some far-reaching with at times dramatic and destructive results. In this ever dynamic process the key to maintaining harmony is to recognise and evaluate the nature of such shifts and to strive constantly to find ways to redress and maintain that crucial balance. To fail to recognise such threats risks the extinction of whole cultures.

A new model for Britain's Defence Forces: Part I Introduction

The following series of blogs has been extracted from my recent paper "A new model for Britain's Defence Forces". If you would like a free copy please contact

The Olympics as a predictor of geopolitical power: Part III The rise of Great Britain

Throughout our Brexit commentary we have maintained that the referendum was in effect a civil war of regionalisation, brought about by the innate expansive energy within the country that needed expression and a new direction. It is rare to see a second significant signal to follow so soon behind, which only confirms our thesis that Britain is on the verge of a powerful phase of expansion on the world stage.

The Olympics as a predictor of geopolitical power: Part II Observations from the 2016 Olympics

Interestingly, there is no official Olympic medal table and the methodology of how it has been unofficially calculated has varied over recent years. For the 2016 Olympics it is based simply on the number of gold medals, but in future perhaps it should have some kind of weighted average, 3 for gold, 2 for silver and 1 for bronze? That being said the 2016 Olympic table shows some fascinating linkages between sport and geopolitical power.

The Olympics as a predictor of geopolitical power: Part I Competitive games and rising empires

In humanity’s ancient past, survival was the key focus; but we are social animals, and fights would have occurred in order to resolve differences between members of a tribe. However, struggles to the death would weaken a tribe by depleting its members. Thus, we can speculate, the notion of ritualised competition as a safe channel for aggression must have arisen. With the later advent of weapons, the need to train for their use in a non-lethal way would also have been necessary.

Global Leadership Trends

The organisation of human social structures has traditionally been hierarchical. This behaviour extends back to the time of tribal chiefs, kings and emperors. All were seated at the top of a pyramid with ultimate power, much as a queen controls an ant colony. The major departure from this organisational pattern was the introduction of democracy, with its much broader power structure and higher levels of collective enfranchisement within a society.

Brexit Part XXII: Brexit taking shape

When one considers the lightning and decisive change in power following the EU referendum, one can only interpret the shift as a massive affirmation of Britain's democratic process.

Brexit XXI: Beyond Brexit

So, the all important question is "What happens next?".

Using the methodology within BTCH we would expect the following to unfold.

A political quantum shift to the right

Brexit Part XX: Brexit and the predictive accuracy of the BTCH principles

The core principle of Breaking the Code of History (BCTH) and the five stages of empire is that the first stage, regionalisation, cannot take place without a core nation with expanding demographics at its centre to act as an attractor/agglomerator. The EU, in contrast, has gone through a forced agglomeration with negative demographics in its core nations. This makes the EU inevitably doomed to failure and collapse. Interestingly, the almost unavoidable collapse of the EU was not publically debated, but widely recognised amongst the leavers.


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