Murrinations

Transformation within Crisis: Part III The risk of a Chinese war of expansion

Over the past ten years I have written a great deal about the rise of China and its challenge to America. Especially, during the last eight years of rapid decay caused by Obama’s policies and specifically, the policies which have narrowed the America-China power gap considerably. However, the Chinese may have made a critical mistake, one encouraged by the over-confidence engendered by the recent speed of America's decline. Although, the decline of America has facilitated a rapid closure of the power gap, on an absolute basis the power gap is still very wide.

Transformation within Crisis: Part II The risk of a trough war with Russia

To understand the relationship between Russia and the West today, we need to review the events of the past 100 years.

Transformation within Crisis: Part I

Many readers have often joked that Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) and my blogs are pessimistic, and thus that I must be a pessimist! However, I have always answered that I am an optimist by nature; which always elicits a good laugh! I then explain that BTCH was structured as a self-help book for mankind, and the first stage was to understand and highlight both our positive and destructive patterns. The second stage emphasised the impending big challenges that we face in the decades ahead and how we might surmount them.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

WISHING YOU A MAGNIFICENT 2017 AND MAY YOUR ASPIRATIONS BECOME REALITY!

DAVID

Global Agriculture

David has been engaged in African agriculture since he co-founded Emvest back in 2007. On Monday 5 December, David spoke on the opening panel of the Global AgInvesting Conference in London, and following that on Resonance Radio. The recording of the program is given below. https://www.mixcloud.com/Resonance/the-naked-short-club-5th-december-2016/

 

Insights: Breaking The Code of History

The following is a session write-up at the conference SuperInvestor, Amsterdam (17 November 2016) by the SuperReturn team.

David Murrin needed little introduction as Thursday morning’s keynote speaker. According to the Chairman of the morning, he is the “Indiana Jones of the financial industry.”

David’s book, Breaking the Code of History, is a culmination of five years of intensive research, combined with the knowledge absorbed from a 25-year banking and investment career.

The impending crisis in the European Union and the euro post Brexit

To the British electorate who voted to remain in the EU, the immediate knee-jerk reaction to Brexit in the form of a drop in the sterling confirmed their worst fears. Yet, sterling’s 15% repricing did not herald a disaster, but rather a boost to the UK’s economy via making exports more competitive.

The Trump Reset: Part IV Trump's expected domestic and economic policy

Using the observation that under the "Make America great again" program, values will regress back up the empire cycle curve, it is easier to understand the context of Trump’s views on abortion and gay marriage. Forgetting the libertarian perspective and taking it right back to the dynamics of the human system, it emulates catholic policies which were designed to maximise population growth, which is consistent with demographic expansion and to increase the economic muscle in the future.

The Trump Reset: Part III Trump's expected geopolitical strategy

Obama's policies were derived from the extreme position side of the wealth and power distribution political camp, whilst Trump's views originate from the diametrically opposite position of wealth and power creation. Thus, Trump has to reverse the majority of Obama's key policies  to begin to  remedying the situation, with the exception of the Pivot to Asia which was the right call. However, simply reversing the previous administration's policies will not be enough to change America's trajectory.

The Trump Reset: Part II America on the Empire Curve and how it will shape Trump's policies

One of the core conclusions in Breaking the Code of History is that America, as the last empire of the Super  Western Christian Empires entered the last of the Five Stages of Empire in 2001. That last stage is decline, which started with 9/11 and has been building momentum over the past 15 years.

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