Murrination Insights

Rugby was the game of The British Empire, played at the public schools that fed the officer and leadership class that ruled the world. Its physicality and brutality, coupled with the courage and…

The world is in a high entropic state, AKA a crisis with escalating inflation, financial dislocation and escalating global conflict. In such times, politicians always…

5.1 The great age of Western wealth destruction started at the end of 2021, with the peak of the Doomsday Bubble in…

4.1  Expect commodity prices, inflation and stagflation to continue rising

We continue to predict that we have entered the age of super stagflation,…

3.1 The end of globalisation and the bifurcation of the world has been unfolding since the onset of Covid at the…

We named last year The Year to Look Up, based on the Netflix film Don’t Look Up. Because rarely has a film so captured a society's mental state of total delusion and denial. A…

1.0 The big risks; hegemonic challenge continues to increase global entropy

Global Forecaster's core thesis of Anti Entropy in Human Systems describes why humans…

The following  is an appraisal of our 10 main geopolitical predictions made at the start of 2022. This does not include any of the subsequent predictions that we have made during the year.

Since the commencement of the new Global Britain cycle of empire, we have seen a clear alternation of leadership between lateral- and linear-thinking prime ministers. For those of…

History does not just rhyme; it repeats over and over again and will do until we enshrine its lessons in our thoughts and actions. We have already written about the analogy between…

The Biden administration’s decision to provide the highly capable surface-to-air area defence Patriot System to Ukraine is extremely significant. Foremost because it…

Global Forecaster anticipated both the invasion of Ukraine months beforehand, and that it would be the start of a protracted conflict that would be known in the future as WW3. Consequently, on 22…

There are two kinds of government: peacetime leadership, which can be lateral or linear and alternates on the cycle of empires and nations; and wartime leadership, which to be effective and…

China, in its arms race with America, has, for the past two decades, focused on denying the region within the third island chain to the US and its allies' warships. It has done this by building a…

Britain has for at least a decade irresponsibly neglected its military capabilities across…

Global Forecaster was among the earliest to identify Covid-19’s likely origin as a laboratory leak from Wuhan, based on its sudden emergence, high transmissibility,…

Putin has been losing his war on the Ukrainian battlefield, which as we have outlined in The Battle for Ukraine 22; Fire and Brimstone has been due to Ukraine's guts and…

The Spanish Civil War took place between 17 July 1936 and 1 April 1939 and remains a little-known conflict in much of the world. Its significance was greater than many appreciate, because during…

During the majority of 1941, well before Pearl Harbor, America was fighting Hitler's U-boats in the Atlantic in support of Britain's life-and-death struggle. At the time, most Americans did not…

Summary

The fall of Kherson, whilst being a major victory for Ukraine and humiliation for Putin, is not the beginning of the end but rather the end of the beginning. Russia’s defeat is a…

In Red Peril; Appeasement is back we outlined the danger of Biden's attempts to appease Xi, which unsurprisingly have now been echoed by Rishi Sunak, the boy scout, as his…

Nobody votes Conservative to pay more tax. The doctrine of Tory administrations since 1979 has been to cut taxation by stimulating growth and reducing public spending. In line with this…

In many circumstances, the lessons of history do not just rhyme but repeat remarkably precisely. Because, as we have proven in Breaking the Code of History and our human systems theories,…

We have been trying to warn the Western world of the dangers of Chinese expansionism for two decades. In China's Expansionism, published nine years…

Having listened to Rishi Sunak's first address as PM of the UK, sadly in our opinion it totally failed to focus on the real threats to our nation as will…

Despite the numerous shortfalls already apparent in Sunak’s policies, there is one clear policy weakness that stands head and shoulders above all others;…

India is today following the path of empire behind Japan and China, and has the potential in the decades ahead to become a global hegemony.

Summary

Sunak’s Policy Construct reflects his linear way of thinking, which will be acutely dangerous for…

Brexit in the Context of the Process of Revolution explained the revolutionary process that frames British politics today and its potential continued…

History shows there is a distinct pattern to the path of revolutions, that are much like the swings of a pendulum. The process of revolution…

Absent Western Leadership

The political challenges currently facing Britain and the Western world…

In The Battle for Ukraine 19 we explained how Putin’s nuclear threats have slowed Ukrainian progress. Consequently, although Putin is under huge pressure on the battlefield in…

The Ukrainian army has, over the past few months, made significant advances into Russian-held territory using Blitzkrieg-style advances in the north around Kharkiv, and…

Post-1996, Jiang Zemin's response to the overt demonstration of American power in the 3rd Taiwan Straits crisis was to change tactics from an overt challenge to a covert challenge. One that would…

Xi, like the totalitarian dictators before him, is now beyond reproach, beyond criticism, and beyond doubt. His word is absolute law. So he is now free to execute his long-…

It comes as no surprise to Global Forecaster that Xi Jinping was chosen for a third five-year term as general secretary of the party. Overturning a long-established two-term limit as head of the…

We have often pointed out the synchronicity between films and concurrent themes in society. Those who are following the new Game of Thrones prequel series…

China has followed our predictions made in 2002 (published in 2009 in Breaking the Code of History), that it would follow an exponential economic growth path that would see it militarise and…

Over the past two weeks, the linear side (AKA the rebranded Remainers) have mounted a major surprise attack to undermine the lateral path expounded by Truss, and her…

The Super Western Christian Empire (SWCE) is in decline, as explained in The West’s Hubristic and Delusional Economic Strategy of Decline. However, Britain is the…

Based on our model of the five stages of empire, there can be no doubt that the Super Western Christian Empire is in the terminal stage of decline. During…

In this article we will demonstrate that the rise of the Japanese Empire of the Sun followed the five stages of empire, setting the path for China's rise of empire over the past 120 years.

Following on from our recent Murrination, The Lessons of Western Naval Hegemony for Asia, we highlighted that any empire seeking to challenge America’s global hegemony has to do so by becoming the…

Sea power has essentially defined the evolution of the Western world, its empires and its democratic values. The process began in the Mediterranean in the struggle between a…

Thought for the day; As humanity charges towards its moment of potential catastrophe, it is deeply concerning to reflect that we are being led not by the…

As Ukraine's battlefield victories continue, one can sense a quiet satisfaction from the Minister of Defence and the MOD. However, as we have written on numerous…

As Monty Python used to say, and now for something completely different: some good news! Collective human anti-entropy has just taken a giant step forward, as our human survival…

One of Global Forecaster's mission statements is to seek to confront and expose malign energy wherever it may manifest in human systems. To that end, we have, when their behaviour is without doubt…

Much as we predicted that Putin would invade Ukraine months before he did, we have similarly warned that Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons is one he…

In our theories of the five stages of empire, we argue that all empires in a state of expansion go to war to attain a greater resource base. This applies to both democratic and autocratic systems…

As a lifetime sailor, I am well aware of the entropic nature of the sea and how benign situations can quickly turn into disasters, unless swift and decisive action is taken. To remind me of this,…

The Doomsday Bubble, created in America, peaked in November 2021 in what we noted at the time as…

In our Murrination The Battle for Ukraine 15; Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail and Escalation we stated that;

Our Nuclear Now or Never Moment is upon us, when NATO will…

As the war goes against him, Putin, who has very little military experience, is behaving just like Hitler before him, taking direct control of the war and cutting out his…

The process of lateralisation overcoming resistance to change is always about timing and intention. 

5.1 Evenly distributed wealth-creation policies and direct…

Human systems do not like to change, so only when external entropic challenges appear on the horizon are they reluctantly forced to do so. Today, Britain has been…

Despite being one of the most educated electorates in the world, the British people have only a limited and emotional collective understanding of the…

Lateral energy by its very nature is bold, so as it increasingly becomes unfettered and empowered we should expect to see sweeping adaptive changes unfold in the UK.

2.1 Rejuvenating the…

Liz Truss, in her election campaign to become Prime Minister, made economic growth a core pillar. To execute this much-needed policy, she chose as her Chancellor of the…

It has been over a year now since we warned that South Africa was on the precipice of disintegration, in our Murrination series listed below. We concluded that the…

In my youth I grew up in close contact with America, and came to love its vitality and drive. However, the America of today has fallen a long way from the dynamism of…

In our recent Murrination The Battle for Ukraine 14; Putin's Panic we predicted that the in-person meeting between Xi and Putin on the sidelines of the…

In a short period of weeks, Britain has undergone an almost unprecedented change in leadership, in both of its great institutions of state. First came the shift from…

The state funeral of Queen Elizabeth marked a great moment in British history, and in the lives of not just the peoples of Britain and the Commonwealth, but the world. It brought us…

In life, we tend to define our actions by doing; as measured by our CVs and the empires we build, where we are the sum of our accomplishments. Of course, without this '…

In a unique paradigm of our time, we continue to expect inflation to rise even as both demand and asset valuations fall, as a consequence of overleverage and reduced spending power. Consequently,…

13.0 Carriers are the Kings (not Queens) of the Maritime Battlefield. Britain’s two small aircraft carriers, HMS Hermes and Invincible, were the greatest assets in the…

14.0  Accurate and Timely Intelligence and Readiness are the only safeguards against surprise attack. The British failure to anticipate the Argentinian response, which was a desperation tactic by…

Over five weeks ago in The Battle For Ukraine 12; Putin's Options, we detailed what Putin's options would be as the war in Ukraine reversed suddenly against him. Since then that…

In our Murrination released on Wednesday 10 August 2022, over five weeks ago – The Battle For Ukraine 11; The Tide Has Turned Against Putin – we predicted that:

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12.0  Contested landings are no longer viable. Once the British fleet had completed the uncontested (from the shore) amphibious landing of its ground forces…

Amongst the many monarchs of British history, it is the three great queens who truly stand out along the five stages of the British Empire and the new cycle of Global Britain:…