Murrinations

The Pity of Misconceptions: (Part III of III) The Aftermath

13. Can a war be fought too long to have a negotiated settlement?.'

  • Wars are like forest fires, which only burn themselves out when they run out of fuel. Modern industrial wars require intention, manpower and resources. When the available manpower pool declines due to sustained casualties the fuel runs out and the intention fails. Only then will negotiations begin.

The Pity of Misconceptions: (Part II of III) The Conflict

Today I continue my review of Nails Ferguson's misconceptions.

9. 'Britain’s involvement in the war caused mobility to give way to trench warfare.'

The Pity of Misconceptions: (Part I of III) The Decision

I am firmly of the belief that history is to be studied in order to  understand the essence of man’s collective social decisions so that we can learn vital lessons that can be applied in future scenarios to create more beneficial outcomes. With that in mind I watched Niall Ferguson’s The Pity of War  with a degree of horror, that a world class historian could present such an ill-interpreted and potentially dangerous thesis on such a vital event as WW1 shocked me to the core.

The long term strategic consequences of the crisis in Ukraine

So Putin has rather predictably called Obama's bluff, having made the correct assessment that Obama is a man of straw, and deployed his armed forces into the Crimea region in a  de facto annexation. His motivation? The defence of his dream to reconstruct the USSR, and revenge for the revolution in Kiev that humiliated him.

Flashpoint Ukraine

Putin’s vision of rebuilding the USSR is one he holds very strongly and one that he has worked hard to craft since his arrival in power. His campaign has accelerated and  he has been immensely successful in the past year taking advantage of Obama’s weak presidency and  foreign policy. Syria is a clear case in point which emboldened Putin to muscle Ukraine away from Europe into his arms.

Welcome to Climate Reality

On August 29th 2005 Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and its resultant storm surge breached the neglected  flood defences in 50 places. Two days later 80% of the city was flooded and 80/90% of the population was evacuated. Sadly, the western world missed the obvious lessons. Climate change will create greater energy in our atmosphere and produce more high energy weather events so that when  they collide with population centres significant damage will result.

The lessons of history go unheeded

The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at last week’s Davos conference warned of the similarity between the current situation of the Chinese rise of military power to that of Germany in 1914 and that Japan’s position today is similar to that of France then. The Chinese continue to make assertive remarks about their intentions, which have been clearly demonstrated by their recent implementation of the Air Identification Zone. The Davos participants who heard such comments acted with shock and surprise.

Measurement of climate energy

Put simply, the sun's radiation speads out through the solar system and then interacts with the earth's atmosphere to warm our planet's surface and oceans. While the sun's radiation output has remained relatively constant over the last 200 years, the composition of our atmosphere has changed since the onset of industrialisation to include more carbon monaxide and methane. These pollutants have become known as greenhouse gases as they increase the ability of the atmosphere to retain the sun's heat.

China Part 2: Reform as demonstration of intention to rise to super power status

In my next book The Roads to Wars I outline a ten step process that nations walk before they initiate a war of expansion. Key to that process is the commitment to resource acquisition, economic power and military growth which are the combined starting point for expansionary policies. China’s execution of this plan of action has been consistent with such ambition.

China Part 1: Did the Cold War lull us all into a false sense of security with respect to a 3rd World War?

In a strange way the peaceful conclusion of the Cold War may well have lulled us into a false sense of security with respect to the  risk of all out world war in the era of nuclear weapons. Why be so pessimistic, you might ask? Because if one breaks down the dynamics of the Cold War in terms of the methodology of the nature of wars as defined in BTCH, the Cold  War was between two elements of the Super Western Christian Empire after its fracture which came about when the whole super empire system was in decline.

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