Over the past week, I have been flooded with people asking me if Boris has blown it! And also watched the press ride the sensational wave without providing any real insight. Indeed the press, with the exception of The Telegraph, has been hugely biased in favour of the Remain perspective. Notably, within Westminster and in the Greater 'remain' London battle, they rather optimistically seek to portray that Boris as 'kaput'. The reality, however, is diametrically opposite.
The reality is that Boris and his team have played the best possible hand against a parliament that was 75% pro staying in the EU. A parliament that is out of phase with the democratic will of the nation, which could only muster 48% in favour of staying at the referendum and whose numbers I suspect have shrunk since then for those that have seen the true colours of the bureaucratic EU.
Parliament has now been prorogued, after it had done its worst by inflicting six straight defeats on the government. However, with a majority of one that was reduced to less than none, Boris was never going to get any agreement from Parliament to further the cause of leaving and using no-deal leverage to gain the best deal. As in truth, 75% were determined to stay and frustrate the people's vote, as they thought they knew better. However Boris’s first success, was to bring what has been a covert parliamentary intention to stop Brexit, into the open, so it became overt. This included some elements of his own party. Thus for the first time in three years the battle lines have been clearly drawn. The hypocrisy of the Labour Party, which in its 2017 Manifesto said it 'accepts the referendum result and will put the national interest first', and Conservative Cabinet members who blocked a no-deal, have all been revealed as untrustworthy and dishonourable. Meanwhile, the Labour Party has become the first opposition party to decline two offers to challenge the government and go to the people. Why? Because they know they will lose, even if they do not appreciate by how much! In so doing, they have given Boris the moral and positional ascendancy, much as Bonaparte’s fleet did to blockading the Royal Navy that kept it in port for two years before venturing out to be annihilated by Nelson at Trafalgar in 1805.
Before reviewing the phases of the Battle of Parliament. it is worth highlighting a few observations from The Brexit War’s Final Battle as outlined in the last Murrination.
1. Who has the natural advantage of leadership? The tables have been reversed and it is the Remainers who have now been banished and reduced to a resistance movement. As a left-brain, linear thinking movement, the Remainers just do not have the strategic thought process to win this asymmetrical last stage battle. So the odds on this basis are firmly in Boris’ favour, as he is a right-brained creative thinker. Also because Boris has harnessed government to his and his team's right-brained lateral strategies, maximizing the impact of each movement on the chessboard towards checkmate. The sense that Remainers do not know what is coming next from Boris is a huge advantage going forward, especially as they correctly suspect that it will come from left field, generating a sense of Remainer paranoia.
2. With Brexit enshrined in law for 31st October, the Remainers will have to dislodge Boris from the high ground, (the law to extend article 50 by three months may not be enough) knowing that if they force Boris into an election and he commits to a no-deal outcome Nigel Farage will join forces and victory will be inevitable against an ineffectual Corbyn Labour Party. This will in effect combine the two right-wing forces of British politics who will inevitably win a large majority. In conclusion, Brexit is inevitable and so is an election result with a best-case a clear Conservative Party majority, worst case a Conservative/Brexit party majority.
3. The proroguing of Parliament has forced the Tory Remainers into the open where they can be deselected and the party cleared once and for all of the old moribund establishment energy that chooses not to adapt and change in line with the nations needs of a rapidly changing world. This will then set the scene for a clear Conservative agenda and a post-Brexit Government and a Conservative Party with a majority of the house that is dedicated to taking the full opportunities provided in a post-Brexit world to carve out a new and expansive path for Britain, as described in our Vision Global Britain 2025 campaign.
4. There is one unseen and vital component of this Brexit Battle, and that is the power of each sides intention. On the one hand the aspiration of the Leavers is to escape the clutches of the EU and allow Britain to grow and expand with a sense of blue sky freedom. In contrast the MP who favour staying are voting for the Political Unification of Europe, the submergence of national indemnity into a United States of Europe. A vision that would diminish Parliament to the status of US state legislate. Thus those fighting to remain, are fighting for the extinction of the sovereignty of Parliament and their roles as MPs. In a close run battle such as this, intention is a critical component to victory. It does not take much imagination to see that those fighting for life will overcome those fighting for their own and others extinction!
The Phases of Battle for Parliament
1. Boris met EU leaders and asked them to move on the current May deal. In so doing they got to personally see his determination to, if necessary, go for a no-deal. This will be a critical element as to whether the EU manage to agree to offer another three month delay on the 19th October
2. Boris prorogued Government with two objectives
a. This created uncertainty in EU leaders so that they would become more open to renegotiating. However, this logical move was swiftly negated by Parliament's response to undermine Boris’ position by ruling out a no-deal exit. In future, there will no doubt be an enquiry into the colusion of some MPs with Brussels to undermine the negotiations to leave.
b. Although it was almost inevitable that Parliament would act against Boris, it was an important step to show EU leaders his clear determination and intention. But most importantly in the ensuing hypocritical outrage (when their battle cry stated that Parliament's sovereignty had to be defended, when staying in the EU would have the very dramatic and opposite effect!) it forced the Remainers in the Conservative Party to declare themselves against the government, after being warned that if they voted against government they would be expelled from the Conservative Party. In so doing Boris was looking forward to what his party would look like, once it had won an election under his leadership and he sought to end the decades-long pro and anti-EU schism.
c. The resignations of Jo Johnson, Boris brother and Amber Rudd, as dedicated Remainers, were within the above context and notable as cabinet members who had committed to a no-deal and then broke that commitment. The proroguing of Parliament shifted the covert actions of Conservative Remainers into an overt response that could be met head-on by Boris. The claims that the party had become right-wing were hysterically incorrect. Rather Boris’ vision for the Conservatives was to once more become aspirational.
d. In terms of the Five Phases of Empire model (Breaking the Code of History), the role of a civil war is to remove the left-brained leadership that has stagnated the system and replace it with a right-brained bold expansive energy that can allow the system to grow rapidly. Until now without (thank goodness) a kinetic war this mechanism was absent the Brexit process. However, the culling of the Conservative Party of Remainers was the start and will be followed in the next election by a similar process across parliament.
3. Parliaments blocking of a no-deal exit was in effect an attempt to stop Brexit. Thus came into being the decree that if an acceptable deal has not been agreed by the 19th October, then Boris should seek a three month extension. What the extension would do is unclear as there is no Plan B. However whilst Boris might ask for an extension he will no doubt seek to frustrate such a request with added clauses or actions that are legal.
4. Meanwhile, from the EU perspective, it is highly probable that at least one nation, France being top of the list, will veto any extension of Article 50 making a no-deal certain. As Boris looks to be ahead in the polls, if a general election takes place an extension would not increase the chances of Britain staying. The greater the uncertainty that Boris generates the more likely that the EU cuts Britain loose.
5. Labours fear of an election, whilst saying they want a general election and yet refusing to agree one is unique in British history and is only explainable because they know they will lose. Indeed the longer they resist an election the worse will be their result. The only reason they poled so well the last time was the overwhelming dislike that the electorate had of May. But Boris is altogether a very different proposition who will only become more popular as this process continues, due to his authenticity and boldness.
6. Cummings the Hatchetman - has become by choice the lightning rod to protect Boris. All civil wars have hatchetmen as it's a dirty business fighting ones own people. Thus there is no doubt his tenure is limited, as is for all hatchetmen once the war is won, but once he inevitably resigns it will leave Boris with a clearer reputation and ability to reconcile a post-Brexit Britain.
7. John Bercow the Pretender, broke with tradition that the speaker was a neutral force in Parliament and subverted the office for his own ends to support his remainer convictions and attempt to take control of Parliament to undermine the Conservative government. In so doing, he set the scene for a other MP's to follow their own interests running riot through the unspoken lines that had governed key parts of the parliamentary process.This ultimately led to the route to prorogation as the Government struck back at Bercow's kingdom. Incensed by his actions over that last week the Conservatives then sought his removal. The Pretender recognising the inevitability of his demise chose the moment to leave to create maximum damage when his successor could be voted in by the current remain parliament, rather than the inevitability of a leave parliament voting post-election. Yet another example of his departure from the traditionally neutral role of the speaker, to one that seeks to wield power and influence to favour his own remaining views and future career.
8. The British Bulldog is back; Boris's commitment to finding ways to leave whatever happens is having two effects, creating uncertainty in the minds of EU Leaders, and increasing his popularity with Brexit voters and the marginal ones who might be encouraged to swap sides. It is also framing Boris as a strong determined leader who can and will do the impossible and there is nothing like an underdog that wins to resonate with the British voters.
A Missed Opportunity to correct the No Deal misnomer.
The term No Deal is the most powerful piece of negative PR in the Brexit war. Coined by the Remainers and associated with crashing out and terminal economic destruction, the reality is diametrically opposite.
Ask China how they feel about the No Deal that took them from the 6th biggest to the biggest economy on a purchasing power parity basis and 2nd overall behind the USA. They would answer that the WTO no deal was the best thing that happened to the Chinese economy. So why does Boris not drive that point home and deprive the Remainers of the fear factor that influences so many of the nation?
Boris now has five weeks to strengthen his hand for the 'Last Great Battle of the People' and an inevitable election. Thus the electorate's response to the party conferences and resultant poles, will be critical in this battle. The stronger the polls are in Boris’ favour, the greater the magnitude of doubt he will sow into the minds of the EU leaders, that one way or the other Britain is leaving the EU. There will be three potential outcomes:
- Boris finds a way to modify/change the Irish backstop, by moving the border into the Irish sea, or by introducing monitoring technology. However there are still elements of Mays deal that are far from a clean break from the EU that may not be accepted by the ERG.
- The EU blink and start negotiating at the last minute. However, the rigidity and arrogance of the EU negotiators make this a slim chance.
- The EU refuses to negotiate, and at least one nation blocks the extension and Britain leaves with a No deal on the 31st October.
Whatever the pathway, it is now all but inevitable that Britain is leaving the EU on the 31st October without a deal.
The Good news - Democracy is Not broken
For those that a have been sucked into the hysteria of the press and are appalled about the depths to which British democracy has fallen, I would like to end on a positive note.
Never in history has a civil war been conducted without bloodshed and rupture to the society in question. Yet Brexit is the first such peaceful revolution that is being contained by a democratic framework. A truly remarkable achievement indeed. In essence, the issue is that the rigid mindset of the ruling elites in British society and Parliament are out of phase with the general population's desires. The next election will change that completely, as the issue of Brexit and its associated aspirations become the defining differentiator between the parties. Only now will the various parties clearly stand for staying or leaving. Thus whichever side wins, we should all be very proud to be British.