Murrination Insights

One of our predictions around the emergence of a new Global Britain was that as American power waned, we predicted that the UK would seek to fill that vacuum as the EU also followed the US path.…

One of the great ironies is that our Murrinations at times seem to attract more attention from the West’s enemies than they do from our linear British and American political leadership, whom they…

Liz Truss may be a strange fish, but to her credit, she has consistently highlighted the correct strategic priorities, which only a lateral thinker would see as the critical path forward for the…

As we explained in The Battle for Ukraine 43: What Next? our conclusion remains that despite Russia’s best efforts to employ combat adaptations (see The Battle for Ukraine 40; Russian War-Fighting…

The advantages of AI are obvious and include streamlining any iterative…

The delusional, liberal and optimistic scenario is that AI development will be focused on the common good of humanity. It…

The AI revolution is upon us. In this case, I do not use the word 'revolution' lightly, because it will bring with it sweeping short and long-term…

The parallels between Britain facing up to the hegemonic challenge of Germany in the lead-up to WW1 and America today facing China's hegemonic challenge are considerable. The main one being the…

It has been a few weeks since King Charles III's coronation captivated the nation and world, and so the press coverage has died down. However, the importance of the event deserves some reflection…

As we explained in NATO, Led by the UK, Seeks to Finally Allow Ukraine to Win the War, Russian forces are in a no-win situation. Putin's spring offensive was limited in its strategic capability,…

The failure to recognise that large-scale reconnaissance, such as that conducted by Putin’s subsea assets, always has aggressive intentions, has resulted in a total failure to effectively counter…

History is replete with nations whose armed forces sought to challenge larger hegemonic powers, and to do so they built an asymmetrical advantage into their calculations. Putin followed just such…

1.0 Lessons From WW2 and General Model

One of WW2 and Germany's greatest generals, with a reputation for constantly skilled command in both attack and defence, has now faded into the…

Red Lightning was written in 2020 and published in early 2021. Hence there are a number of geopolitical changes that we would make today, if we were writing the book again three years later. But…

In November 1917, after spending the whole war in an offensive mode, Sir Douglas Haig knew that in response to the revolution in Russia, Germany would release up to 55 divisions to…

"Tora" means "tiger" in Japanese, and was the codename for the strike by the Japanese Imperial Navy during their attack on Pearl Harbour. Hence the rally cry of the Japanese bombers making their…

4.0 Total Surprise is the Only Way the PLAN can Execute Regional Military Dominance

Incremental expansion is always more appealing to a hegemonic challenger than a sudden all-out war, with…

In a country that is rarely exposed to natural disasters (unlike Japan with its typhoons and earthquakes), the sole purpose of an emergency alert system in Britain is to warn of an impending…

3.0 Comparisons of Naval Capability

3.1 The Pacific balance of power currently favours the American/Democratic forces by a significant amount, in both numbers and technology.…

Neville Chamberlain was no doubt a good man, locked into a linear way of thinking that prevented him from divining and reacting to Hitler’s clear intention to wage war on his nation and its allies…

2.0 China's Strategy for Victory

The key lessons from History For China in seeking to win its hegemonic challenge are as follows:

1.0 Historic Examples of Asymmetric Hegemonic Challenge

In this Murrination we will explain the strategic reality that Xi’s PLAN faces…

The main purpose of signals intelligence (SIGINT) is to know about the activities, capabilities and intentions of your rivals. Signals intelligence is a key tool in comprehending what military and…

One of our core 2023 predictions was that there would be a major commercial and home property implosion in the UK and US, as expressed below;

With high inflation that will in 2023 only…

Russia was, until the Cold War, effectively the largest nation in terms of land area in the Super Western Christian Empire. Hence its power was based on its large population, which…

Since the March 2020 oil price lows, we have seen the first price surge to $130, and based on our market analysis we believe the subsequent…

China is rapidly building a powerful autocratic alliance, centred around Russia, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, and now potentially joined by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to challenge the…

On Wed, 26/10/2022 - 09:29 we published this Arkent scenario Red Peril 4 - Exodus for our investors, which over six months later is now hitting the main headlines. It is…

History is full of lessons that, if heeded, can change the course of the future for the better. One of which is that aggressive dictators have a clear pattern of warning the world of their…

Global Forecaster was started in 2019 with these ten clear mission statements:

To that end we have accurately predicted  the majority…

The Fed has for some two decades enacted a policy of quantitative easing (QE) through their Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) programmes, to sustain the American empire in its fifth stage of decline.…

History really does repeat itself, as the war in Ukraine and that of the Western front in 1918 have very similar parallels.

In the spring of 1918 the German high command launched its…

During the spring of 1918 the British Expeditionary Force was the focus of the German High Command's last-ditch attack, and despite being sorely pressed managed to preserve their tanks and other…

The impact of Putin's much-vaunted spring offensive was always going to be limited by the Russian army's inability…

We have, since well before the publication of Breaking the Code of History in 2003, argued that not only is climate change real, but that we are far more progressed then we recognise or accept.…

Throughout history, hegemonies have initially been built on revolutions of military affairs, that then give their armed forces an advantage on the battlefield. One that…

5.0 Brexit to Lateralise or Fall

We started with the question of what evaluation metrics should be applied to Brexit to monitor its success.

The Five Stages of Empire cycle predicts that as a system enters late regionalisation, it shifts modes from "copy and assimilate" to "innovation". Then by the second stage of…

The Telegraph’s release of 'Lockdown-gate' exposed the extreme dysfunction of Johnson’s leadership and his supporting government throughout the three waves of the Covid pandemic. The period caused…

4.0 Success 1: The Start of Greater Globalisation

In this regard, Britain has swiftly reassumed its global perspective and interactions, which will bear fruit in the…

One of the less well-known key global maritime strategic choke points is the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap, which comprises two stretches of the northern Atlantic Ocean between…

Our collapse of the doomsday Bubble prediction is very much ongoing, and we believe on the cusp of an acceleration lower. In our Long/Short Strategies November 2022, we explained why we have been…

The Tories have refused to maximise the potential advantages and Brexit delivery is in the doldrums, when inflation has…

Within our theory of Human Collective Systems, under Principle 3, we outline our theory on the lateral/linear symbiotic dynamics in human systems. Specifically that during the expansionary phase…

3.2  Failure 2: Brexit Left Northern Ireland Behind

3.2.1 An Unexploded Bomb (UXB) Under Brexit

The Northern Ireland Protocol was a metaphorical bomb left…

Following our Murrination Ukraine 35: Lessons From The Paths To Previous World Wars, we now take a detailed look at our predictions for Xi's support of Putin'…

The paths to past world wars have followed a series of clear steps. Phases of escalation that the majority of those who lived through them were not aware they were…

We have articulated many times over the past two decades that the dominant player in the Super Western Christian Empire is America. However, post  9/11, it…

The Panama Canal is a critical choke point that allows the US Navy to shift its forces swiftly between the Pacific and Atlantic. Its closure would have huge military-strategic…

3.0 Post-Brexit Delivery Shortfalls

In the Five stages of Empire model, the regional civil war is the point that separates the first stage of regionalisation from that…

1.0 The Global Economic Environment

The world's economy has changed dramatically over the two decades since many of the Remainers decided they were pro-EU. Yet that profound secular shift…

As the world moves towards a fully blown global WW3, it is important for the leaders and peoples of democracy to truly understand who we are dealing with, when facing the axis of autocracy.…

In our article Has the Bank of England Become a National Liability, With a QE Bomb Under It? we explained why central banks failed to see the inflation surge that started from March 2020, and…

Brexit Evaluation Metrics

A few weeks ago Britain celebrated three years since Brexit. The milestone was greeted by comments from Remainers and even some Leavers that Brexit had been a…

Nicola Sturgeon’s departure, after the implosion of her ill-considered transgender policy, was inevitable. Her campaign was a desperate attempt to drive a wedge between…

The recent speeches given by Putin and Biden, provided a unique opportunity to compare and contrast the essential differences between autocracy and democracy. Especially with respect to their…

All it will take is one ship to block the Suez Canal, just like the Evergreen did, and merchant and warships will have to make a 5,100-mile detour through the Indian Ocean, along the…

One of Global Forecaster’s mission statements is to confront and expose malign and destructive energy wherever it may manifest itself in human systems. Whilst supporting…

We have been warning of Chinese expansionism for over a decade, especially in its building of island bases. The last Murrination on the topic was Red Peril – Expansive…

Russia and China have been drawing ever closer since the inauguration of Xi as President in 2012. Forming what is now effectively an axis or military alliance, set against that of the Western…

In this article we examine the precedents of previous major technology transfers linked to world wars. With the…

In case you had not seen these images and story of the recent kidnapping in the Papua region of Western New Guinea, I thought I would share…

Imagine a moment in time in the future; China has launched its Pearl Harbour V2.0 attack on the US, Japanese and South Korean Forces in the Asian basin, as far out to Guam, as…

The current dynamic in most core Western governments is a split between: a faction that supports Ukraine and seeks to give it all the military and support it needs; and…

In our Murrination The Future of Land Warfare and the Tank published on 27 August 2020, we wrote: "As we approach the 2020 Strategic Defence and Security Review, there are wild ideas circulating…

Western democracy is today in what we call the just one more blade of grass syndrome. The wolves are at the gate, the sheepdogs are barking a warning sign, but the sheep just keep eating grass.…

In Breaking the Code of History we outlined our theory of Polarisation and the Road to War. One of the clearest examples of secondary polarisation was demonstrated after Russia’s invasion of…

Putin’s all-or-nothing play is now unfolding in response to NATO's increased flow of tanks and weapons to Ukraine, with the inevitable offensive that will begin the march to his ultimate defeat.…

In our Murrination Global Britain Under New Leadership we argued that Charles III would be a great king, following and expanding on the path set out by the late queen; Elizabeth II: The Evolution…

The recent flight over America by a Chinese balloon is much more significant than most people appreciate. China described the balloon as an innocent “civilian airship”…

We have been warning that Putin’s response to NATO sending an increased flow of tanks and weapons to Ukraine, ensuring his defeat, would be to turn off the energy taps completely. Even if it hurt…

In late 2020 we published Now Or Never to alert No 10, the MOD and the PM to the dangers of WW3 ahead. The message partially got through, as Johnson within weeks made his speech in Parliament…