January 2020

Will financial History repeat itself?

This image from 1929 of desperate investors gathering in desperation outside the wall street exchange has always fascinated me. 91 years later the question has to be, could this happen again?  As followers of my Murrinations will be aware, we have been predicting the imminent march towards a major market dislocation that has a high probability of being of the same magnitude as the 1929 crash in its economic impact, and similar with respect to gaping price action, as everyone simultaneously tries to exit through a small door.

Today Britain will finally leave the EU continental model and return to being a sovereign state free to pursue our aspirations of once more becoming a Global maritime nation.

When the majority of humans are confronted with an abnormal and extreme situation their brains fuse and they revert to a normal pattern of behaviour  in the hope that the threat will just go away.

The situation with the Snake Virus is just so. It is clear that it is raging out of control within China. Furthermore, 5 million Wuhan residents left the region for Chinese new year and are now spreading the virus to new hosts who are also doing the same.

My father was head of the airworthiness division of the CAA. Thus I  was brought up with all the main players in the aviation business as family friends and have since then had an enduring fascination with planes.