The mishandling of the pandemic response by Boris and his government can only be described as disastrous. The string of appalling late responses, misjudgments and random actions has sadly exposed the Prime Minister's leadership as incompetent. For example, whilst the belated first lock down could be justified by extreme caution when faced with a new threat, the second one certainly has no validity in science.
There is another pandemic currently raging through Britain alongside COVID; a pandemic of fear. It is a pandemic Boris has fuelled with his current response and one the press and news agencies perpetuate.
As per my Murrination The Second Wave Does Not Require a Lockdown, the overwhelming evidence is that lock downs are not an effective countermeasure to the spread of the virus. On top of this, the resultant economic damage is potentially catastrophic. On the other hand, the herd immunity strategy highlighted by Sweden is one we too should follow due to it's success. Indeed, the evidence seems clear that there is cross-immunity present already in many populations, including the UK, which will limit the spread of the infection.
We must remember this virus is not the Black Plague or Spanish Flu. It is more like a very bad flu with its worst impact on the more susceptible elements of the population. Thus, having seen a mild excess death spike above the average, this next wave should have far less impact than the worst case models predict.
Despite this, Britain and Boris remain in the grip of the delusional and egocentrically driven guidance of Witty and Valence with that most destructive of influences Neil Ferguson in the supporting second row.
To be very clear, Boris is driving the nation into a blind alley by pushing for a second lock down and further acceleration of the economic contraction with untold social consequences. Once more the fear stick has been wielded whilst the rising case numbers already show that the tripwires being used to justify this action are no longer relevant.
Yes, the numbers of infected or those that have had the virus are rising. That is because the test cannot distinguish between the two situations of active and past effects of the virus giving false positives with respect to active infection rates.Meanwhile, the critical care levels and death rates are not related in the same way as the first wave with respect to total the numbers of positive tests as we are testing more than we did in the first wave. So in reality the data is just not comparable.In addition if the infections in this second wave are focussed on the under thirty's and student population, we would expect high infection rates as its sweeps through the group, but very few hospitalisations. A situation we should have been engineering in the summer to raise heard immunity, when due to seasonality coronaviruses are always less virulent.
Meanwhile Witty & Co are arguing there is a lag in death rates versus the positive tests, the evidence will, I suspect, show that in three weeks the infected numbers will be higher than the last peak but that death rates will remain low.
The scientific, political and collective delusion of focussing on a few numbers such as infection rates as if they represent the real picture, has to stop and be replaced with real data modelling placed in the context of exceeds deaths that take into account seasonality and similar respiratory types of deaths.If this were to be done, it would be apparent that we are dealing with a virulent and very nasty flue infection, rather than the Spanish flue or black death.
Thus Boris' current strategy based on poor statical modelling, will lead to enormous damage and increased the collective fear of the population as well as the constriction of the economy which will result in horrendous social consequences. This is damage that may well be the final straw that results in Boris being forced from office by his party. Unless Boris can separate himself from the almost inevitable national lock down that the current dominant scientific thought process is leading us too.
A great leader would have altered course away from the Witty and Valence rocks to steer Britain onto a course similar to Sweden's strategy.