If we compare today's Brexit with our two past examples of the English civil war and Henry VIIIs reformation we find an anomaly in the new British cycle. At the bottom of the British national cycle post-1970 there was a continuity of governance unseen in past cycles due to the framework of the super western Christian empire. Whilst continuity accelerated Britain's recovery time considerably, its' downside was that the legacy leadership structures of the nation remained in place, rather than evolving through a period of chaos which would have allowed new leadership to rise to the fore. Today we are seeing the consequences of this process with widespread weak leadership across the House of Commons that has precipitated a major constitutional crisis. The Brexit negotiations are not the cause of the problem, but rather that they have exposed the weaknesses of a PM, cabinet and Parliment that have a stark conflict of interest with the electorate. The electorate chose to leave the EU and the government have proven incapable of effectively negotiating an exit from an overbearing EU. As the quagmire deapens we need to remind ourselves of the four key elemental energies that drive a civil war of regionalization. Thankfully civil war is not on the cards as the democratic process hopefully allows for a medium of resolution. However, we must recognize the key social drivers that will need to be satisfied for Britain to move forward.
1. Broaden the enfranchisement of the population
Whilst the Brexit referendum asked the population for its view on Brexit, the nations' institutionalized leadership in parliament were and are deeply in opposition to leaving the EU. Compounding this dichotomy Prime Minister May was also against leaving the EU. Consequently a "remainer" was in place to negotiate Brexit which represented a massive conflict of interest that would almost inevitably end up in one giant mess. Only a truly exceptional leader (and let's be clear May is far from exceptional) could lead their nation in a direction they did not agree with effectively against an EU determined to prevent a Brexit. Or in a worst case scenario, an EU bent on creating a punitive agreement to prevent other nations from following the British lead. The result was the Chequers proposal with a backstop that would result in Britain remaining part of the EU indefinitely in a subservient role, forced to take EU rules but not to shape them. In times gone by this would have been viewed as traitorous behavior. In today's modern political physiology it can only be described as disingenuous and conflicted.
2. Affirm the core social values of the new system going forward.
The first and foremost value is the nation's desire to remain a sovereign independent nation. However, areas such as 'nation values' and 'aspirations' have yet to be defined. The only person who has even made an attempt to express them has been Boris Johnson in his letters in 'The Times'. Boris has been the only person to articulate a clear vision of what Britain could be post-Brexit. A vision that in truth just revives our old pre-1970s global maritime trading persona.
3. Darwinistically select the most effective leadership
At a time when the nation needs great leadership it has been led by the very antithesis of greatness. In May and Corbyn the leadership could be described as arrogantly incompetent and willfully dishonest. Thus it is in the area of 'National leadership' that we have the greatest divergence from the needs of the nation. This situation developed when May slipped into power conveying the persona of a Cromwellian dictatorship style able to hold together both the leave and remain elements in the conservative party. However the reality is that May is an out of depth left-brained politician. Her dogmatic steamrollering, uncreative approach to problem-solving, and lack of emotional intelligence have been very marked indeed. I suspect that May will be recorded in history as one of the great anti-heroes of British leadership. What is most worrying though is the usually self-serving conservative party has been so slow in removing her. She is driving the party onto the rocks with her determination to push through the Chequers agreement, despite clear signs that she will fail.
Also deeply worrying is that the British parliamentary system has proven unfit to face the challenge to execute the will of the people it represents. To solve the Brexit challenge Britain needs to manifest a great leader from the ranks of the Conservative party, or we will soon face a Labor government and a drop back towards the 1970 lows. This opportunity for leadership change is close at hand as May will inevitably be forced aside after delaying the critical vote this week. The new leader will not only need the full support of the Conservative party but also that of the DUP. This is in order to maintain a working government in the face of an inevitable labor inspired vote of no confidence. The DUP have confirmed that with the right Conservative leadership they will support the Conservatives in the event of a no-confidence vote. However, the bigger question is that unless Parliment MP's swiftly increase the number of right-brained and creative representatives, who choose to serve their nation with bold informed decisions, the greatest risk is that Britain leadership will not be up to the challenge to navigating the trials and opportunities in a post Bexit world. Lastly, if poor leadership diverging from the peoples needs continues, then social unrest such as France has seen could manifest on British streets.
4. To militarise society to a point where it can project power to secure its external resources.
As there has thankfully been no civil war this key element has been neglected, even though Britain now faces two great existential threats in the form of Russia and China. This critical area has been completely neglected by all parties with the exception of one man, the defense minister Gavin Williams who has been fighting the MOD's corner with great vigor and some success. Post Brexit I would expect this area of government policy to receive considerable focus.
We expect the following outcomes in the weeks ahead:
- May loses the confidence of her party, the house and the nation
- Having delayed the vote in parliament May is going back to the EU - however, I do not expect any significant changes on the nature of the deal offered to her.
- Coincidently there will be a leadership challenge in the conservative party. It is vital that the next PM is a Brexit to have any chance of a successful outcome with the EU. Although not popular in the conservative party Boris Johnson is the only viable candidate who can win public votes and who has any vision of Britain stepping back onto the global stage. We would note that there are many similarities between Churchill's call to power in 1940 and Boris today.
- Labour will only call a no-confidence vote if the DUP fails to support the government, which they currently continue to do.
- The EU offers a six-month extension to the negotiations
- Britain under a Brexit leader assumes a "no deal2 posture, and the EU finally compromises in some areas of mutual interest to create a NO DEAL PLUS.
- Britain leaves the EU on time or six months later than expected and switches to WTO rules.