Syria is a troubled state in the Middle East, that has been embroiled in bloody civil war for a decade. However, the consequences of that struggle have not just been regional, but have been extended far more widely. When Obama put down his chemical red line to Syria and Russia, which was quickly crossed, Putin's response with his letter in the New York Times, added to Obama's humiliation. Determined to get his own back, Obama catalysed the Ukraine revolution that overturned a pro-Russian government.
Further to our Murrination Russia: The need for Rapprochement with the West which highlighted the critical and vulnerable economic phase Russia is now entering and the importance with which any sign of aggression should be considered as a warning sign of hostile intent born out of desperation, only two weeks later we h
With the expectation that the impending worldwide recession will act as the final stage in the decline of the commodity process since 2011 we are taking a look at the potential geopolitical consequences and risks for countries whose revenues are commodity price dependant.
In early 1942, the German battleship Scharnhorst and heavy battlecruiser Gneisenau made a daylight dash up the English Channel, from occupied France to the relative safety of Germany. Despite the best efforts of the RAF and Royal Navy, the two warships, with the help of the Luftwaffe, made it safely to Germany. The Royal Navy's failure to interdict this force, so close to its shores was a major blow.
The rather appropriately named 'Trough Wars' are characterised by a nation that finds itself in an economic and social trough. Such a nation chooses to distract its population by using military power to create an external threat and will ensure conflict to unite popular opinion in support of their leadership.
With low oil prices expected until 2018, Russia finds itself in just such a situation today, and we can only expect the severity of the economic impact to increase on its economy.
While millions follow on Twitter a proxy war in eastern Ukraine between Cold War nemeses, there is a bigger and far more serious fight that is well underway and undocumented that unless reversed, will irrevocably change the geo-political and economic landscape in Europe, Great Britain and the United States, in the coming decade.