The lessons of Britain’s past wars remain directly relevant today. World War I, World War II and the Cold War all show that peace is preserved not by weakness or ambiguity, but by…
Global Forecaster
Understanding past cycles to predict future geopolitical and market events
“David is one of the best and most innovative geo-strategic thinkers I know. His understanding of past and current wars, and the weapons and strategies used to shape their outcomes, is profound. This has enabled him to make a series of remarkably prescient predictions about the new age of war, that unfortunately are coming true in front of our eyes. Our political and military leaders would greatly benefit from drawing on his knowledge and insight to help them navigate through these perilous times.”
Field Marshal Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, General Richards GCB, CBE, DSO, DL formerly The Chief of the Defence Staff, the professional head of the British Armed Forces.
Murrination Insights
Geopolitical Forecasts
Murrinations Insights will help you future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions and strategies, to help you anticipate future events. Based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market and environmental developments.
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 17/09/2020 - 12:00
Last Update: Thu, 14/05/2026 - 12:00
Introduction
Britain’s victories in the two World Wars often obscure a more uncomfortable truth: in both 1914 and 1939, the nation entered conflict dangerously underprepared. Those mistakes were…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 16/09/2020 - 07:15
Last Update: Thu, 14/05/2026 - 12:24
Introduction
The pandemic response should be guided by evidence rather than fear. With an autumn second wave likely, governments need to reassess lockdown policies, focus on meaningful data such…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 14/09/2020 - 17:00
Last Update: Thu, 14/05/2026 - 12:33
Introduction
The Western pandemic response reflects a wider pattern of decline: old systems becoming rigid, fearful and unable to adapt effectively under pressure. Rather than acting with…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 11/09/2020 - 14:00
Last Update: Mon, 14/09/2020 - 13:50
The start of September was marked by my predicted blow-off high in the US stock markets that has burst one of the greatest equity bubbles of all time.
The three warning signals came in the…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 10/09/2020 - 15:00
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 13:21
What do flat taxes, the Defence Review, the UK's pandemic strategy and a no-deal Brexit have in common? They all require bold strategies to maximise the UK's outcomes.…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 04/09/2020 - 07:36
Last Update: Thu, 14/05/2026 - 13:38
11.00 Strategies for Boris to Turn Scotland Around
11.1 Independence is an emotional issue
Only recently did Britain leave the EU after years of internal debate and external negotiations…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 03/09/2020 - 14:17
Last Update: Thu, 26/02/2026 - 08:00
8.0 Rise of the SNP and Scottish Nationalism
The Scottish National Party is a nationalist and social-democratic political party founded in Edinburgh in 1934. By the mid-1930s, the decline of the…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 02/09/2020 - 08:57
Last Update: Thu, 26/02/2026 - 08:49
2.0 Population and National Character
Scotland's population demographics tell an interesting story. They have been very constant throughout the 20th century; they were 4.8 million in…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 01/09/2020 - 11:54
Last Update: Thu, 26/02/2026 - 08:22
1.0 A Brief History Of The Union
The Union of England and Scotland goes back to 1707. But, as always, historical events have a backstory. In this case, the Act of Union bailed out a bankrupt…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 27/08/2020 - 11:30
Last Update: Thu, 14/05/2026 - 13:18
Introduction
Britain’s armoured capability should not be weakened at the very moment global military threats are increasing. Tanks remain central to deterrence and land warfare, but they must be…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 24/08/2020 - 17:36
Last Update: Thu, 14/05/2026 - 13:54
Introduction
Brexit marked a peaceful but profound national transformation, giving Britain the chance to break from old systems and prepare for a more dangerous decade ahead. Yet the pandemic and…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 21/08/2020 - 14:19
Last Update: Wed, 26/08/2020 - 15:52
2020 is an election year. There is an old trading adage that states equities' always rally in an election year. Silly me for thinking otherwise! However, the year is not…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 21/08/2020 - 11:57
Last Update: Tue, 17/01/2023 - 11:41
Image
The above diagrams show the Typhoon class submarine (top), until recently the largest submarine ever built, compared…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 20/08/2020 - 17:34
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:25
Until only recently, Britain and the West have severely underestimated Putin. NATO nations have been guilty of appalling sloppiness in not adapting their foreign policy…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 20/08/2020 - 16:51
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 13:21
The first of the significant warning signals at the start of 2020 that indicated a major demand slump and impending financial crisis was the behaviour of the commodity…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 18/08/2020 - 10:30
Last Update: Thu, 20/08/2020 - 17:59
In today's rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, lessons drawn from history are more vital than ever. In my new book, The Road to Wars, I discuss the algorithmic expansion of an aggressive and…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 17/08/2020 - 16:22
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:31
According to Sun Tzu, the prevention of conflict is essential to a sound military strategy: war itself is a last resort, high cost choice. This perspective is particularly critical for older…
© David Murrin 2026. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |