It can be argued that humanity’s wars have up until the 19th century served to strengthen the leadership gene pool by favouring the strong over the weak. However, all…
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Geopolitical Forecasts
Murrinations Insights will help you future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions and strategies, to help you anticipate future events. Based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market and environmental developments.
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 01/09/2014 - 11:12
Last Update: Mon, 01/09/2014 - 13:07
Today, it's difficult to argue, with the wars in Ukraine, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, that we are any closer to transcending the need for wars than were our ancestors.…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 26/06/2014 - 11:38
Last Update: Thu, 26/06/2014 - 14:45
The Middle East has once more grabbed our attention with the striking success of the ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) who seek the establishment of a new…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 27/05/2014 - 11:56
Last Update: Tue, 27/05/2014 - 11:57
When considering the history of mankind and the inventions that have propelled us to advance our societies, the concept of finance and money is rarely mentioned. It is…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 22/05/2014 - 08:50
Last Update: Thu, 22/05/2014 - 10:47
On Thursday 8th May the US House of Representatives approved a plan to bring power to 50 million people in sub-Saharan Africa to help boost the continent's development…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 20/05/2014 - 13:03
Our belief, over the past decade, that China would overtake America as the most powerful nation on earth has, as the reader might imagine, been met by sceptics with…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 14/05/2014 - 08:47
Last Update: Wed, 14/05/2014 - 09:56
Our biggest concern with respect to the crisis in Ukraine has been that the western alienation of Russia and associated sanctions would push Russia into the arms of…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 09/05/2014 - 09:15
The reader will have noticed that in both the previous sections only one nation has been mentioned twice and that is China. In our assessment China's power will…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 08/05/2014 - 10:52
Last Update: Thu, 08/05/2014 - 11:06
Until recently the West has underestimated Putin and his rule. It has been guilty of appalling slackness in not adapting its foreign policy as Russian strength has…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 07/05/2014 - 10:52
Last Update: Wed, 07/05/2014 - 13:21
The rising Islamic world's first impulse was to lash out and resist interference from its historic Christian enemy in the West by exporting terrorism into its…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 06/05/2014 - 11:32
Last Update: Wed, 07/05/2014 - 10:55
Human affairs are all about balance in our relationships, both on the personal level and geopolitically between nations. Changes to the equilibrium always have…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 29/04/2014 - 11:20
I am a great fan of film, not only because I find the visual experience entertaining, but because films represent the collective cultural values of a society.
…Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 25/04/2014 - 10:41
Last Update: Mon, 28/04/2014 - 11:58
In a time when combat between men took place with edged weapons in the majority of situations, the strongest, fittest, fastest and most skilful would have won or…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 10/04/2014 - 09:29
Last Update: Thu, 10/04/2014 - 13:51
So whilst the Western world fixates on the location of a black box, Putin is unleashing his next performance, fermenting unrest in Eastern Ukraine.
…Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 31/03/2014 - 10:38
The generally held perception that global warming is a linear process is one only held by non-scientists. I have repeatedly pointed out that the present apparent pause…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 27/03/2014 - 11:10
Last Update: Fri, 28/03/2014 - 10:32
David was live on CNBC yesterday morning for the Worldwide Exchange programme at 09:00.
David says that events in Ukraine reveal the "decline of the West" and the power vacuum left by the U…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 20/03/2014 - 12:27
Yesterday the Chancellor set the scene for his speech stating that, 'If you're a maker, a doer or a saver: this budget is for you.' The statement begs closer…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 19/03/2014 - 10:39
Last Update: Wed, 19/03/2014 - 11:21
Why is it that human societies assume a linear projection of events from any point now into the future?
It would seem that we have a collective blind-spot to…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 17/03/2014 - 11:02
Last Update: Mon, 17/03/2014 - 11:04
The Indian elections on 7th April will be a watershed moment for the region and possibly the world. As discussed in BTCH, India and the pan Islamic system are both in…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 14/03/2014 - 10:34
Last Update: Fri, 14/03/2014 - 10:35
The US National Debt was some 5795 billion dollars at the end of December 2013, of which 22% is currently held by China and 20% by Japan. A further 9% is owned…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 07/03/2014 - 16:42
Last Update: Sat, 08/03/2014 - 14:34
As predicted, Crimea will now be de facto annexed, whilst the world should expect Putin's next step will be to orchestrate a similar referendum for eastern Ukraine to join Russia.
Meanwhile…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 06/03/2014 - 13:28
Last Update: Thu, 06/03/2014 - 13:32
13. Can a war be fought too long to have a negotiated settlement?.'
Wars are like forest fires, which only burn themselves out when they run out of fuel.…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 05/03/2014 - 11:22
Last Update: Wed, 05/03/2014 - 16:48
Today I continue my review of Nails Ferguson's misconceptions.
9. 'Britain’s involvement in the war caused mobility to give way to…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 04/03/2014 - 14:24
Last Update: Tue, 04/03/2014 - 16:48
I am firmly of the belief that history is to be studied in order to understand the essence of man’s collective social decisions so that we can learn vital lessons…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 03/03/2014 - 14:38
Last Update: Mon, 03/03/2014 - 14:43
So Putin has rather predictably called Obama's bluff, having made the correct assessment that Obama is a man of straw, and deployed his armed forces into the Crimea…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 28/02/2014 - 12:14
Last Update: Fri, 28/02/2014 - 12:20
Putin’s vision of rebuilding the USSR is one he holds very strongly and one that he has worked hard to craft since his arrival in power. His campaign has accelerated…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 17/02/2014 - 11:41
Last Update: Mon, 17/02/2014 - 12:05
On August 29th 2005 Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and its resultant storm surge breached the neglected flood defences in 50 places. Two days later 80% of the city…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 28/01/2014 - 13:44
Last Update: Wed, 29/01/2014 - 09:12
The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at last week’s Davos conference warned of the similarity between the current situation of the Chinese rise of military power to…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 20/12/2013 - 11:28
Last Update: Fri, 20/12/2013 - 11:29
Put simply, the sun's radiation speads out through the solar system and then interacts with the earth's atmosphere to warm our planet's surface and oceans. While the…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 16/12/2013 - 15:44
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:48
In my next book The Roads to Wars I outline a ten step process that nations walk before they initiate a war of expansion. Key to that process is the commitment to…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 16/12/2013 - 13:32
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:48
In a strange way the peaceful conclusion of the Cold War may well have lulled us into a false sense of security with respect to the risk of all out world war in the…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 13/12/2013 - 08:29
Last Update: Thu, 05/02/2015 - 16:25
In order to understand more thoroughly Nelson Mandela’s magnificent achievements, one has to appreciate the geopolitical context of his life and to do that it is…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 29/11/2013 - 14:14
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:47
History abounds with many clear lessons on the limiting of a nation’s acts of aggression in the early stages of militarization, as China is now. If in 1936 Britain and…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 29/11/2013 - 14:10
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:46
As readers of my articles you are by now well acquainted with my view that Iran is currently in an expansionary stage of its development and as such its intentions to…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 04/11/2013 - 12:31
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:46
Our view over the September and October period has been that the stock market rally in the US and Europe has been going through a topping process that marks the end of…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 10/10/2013 - 10:19
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:45
The first time Turkey defied NATO, and specifically US interests, was during the Second Gulf War when it denied access to the US Army’s 4th division which sought to…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 09/10/2013 - 13:55
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:44
With deadlock in Washington and default date looming on the 17th there seems to be a general feeling that when the time comes one party will blink and the problem will…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 23/09/2013 - 11:53
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:44
When one views the current civil wars across the Middle East within the context of a BTCH regional civil war, there are only a few countries that appear to be…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 23/09/2013 - 11:36
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:43
If you enjoyed our blog on China's Africa: How America has dropped the ball, you might appreciate the following recent interviews given by David on Africa:
…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 18/09/2013 - 13:17
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:42
I have always been fascinated by the relationship between the film industry and social mood not just in Hollywood, but indeed globally. At times film directors and…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 10/09/2013 - 12:22
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:41
As highlighted in Breaking the Code of History, one of the key requirements for an empire to grow successfully is to be able to expand into new territory and extract…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 09/09/2013 - 13:17
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:40
Just as the Suez crisis marked the end of the Britsih Empire, the question as to if and when the US punishes Syria for its flagrant use of chemical weapons is now …
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 03/09/2013 - 14:15
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:39
Each of the five stages of empire as described in Breaking the Code of History has a distinctive dynamic and social profile and provides the approach to understanding…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 29/08/2013 - 14:39
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:37
The axiom that the Middle East is going through a civil war of regionalisation, as defined by the five stages of empire, continues to be an accurate and prophetic…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 21/06/2013 - 08:41
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:37
The new documentary that raises the question of whether flight AA 587 out of New York was shot down on November 12th 2001 with the loss of 260 people by a missile (…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 20/06/2013 - 15:03
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:36
The speech last night by chairman of US Fed, Ben Bernanke, confirmed our opinion that the May 22 stock market high was the peak of the bull period and that markets…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 20/06/2013 - 14:19
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:35
The model of the five stages of empire outlines how an empire in ascension will borrow from its own economy to fund its economic and military growth. This has been the…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 19/06/2013 - 11:01
Last Update: Thu, 19/12/2013 - 08:35
US Navy invites Chinese Navy to 2014 RIMPAC exercises. With such overt Cold War games being played the big question is why has China been asked to the 2014 RIMPAC (…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 14/06/2013 - 14:06
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:49
The big question is do you believe in coincidence? Or putting it another way do you believe in coincidence when the Chinese are involved?
…Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 14/06/2013 - 13:35
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:43
By using the logic and arguments set out in BTCH to understand the rise and fall of empires gives us an appreciation of the five stages of empire. This process allows…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 30/05/2013 - 13:00
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:43
Whilst the topic of Chinese cyber espionage was discussed extensively in BTCH it is critical that the West protects its technology. Since 9/11 the western world has…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 23/05/2013 - 16:37
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:42
In Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) I dedicated a whole chapter to climate change, and presented evidence that human industrial activity was the cause of climate…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 23/05/2013 - 10:44
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:42
Financial Bubbles have been a characteristic of markets since their inception. These phenomena represent a collective view in the value of an asset that ultimately…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 14/05/2013 - 10:25
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:41
After many of my speeches a common question is ,’What can one person do to change the future?‘ This is a question that has been asked through the ages by people who do…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 10/05/2013 - 14:39
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:40
Copper continues to look weak with its break lower and pull back to the 3300 area. Having dropped some 10% since our initial call, we continue to believe that copper…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 10/05/2013 - 10:17
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:39
To date we have been working on the premise that Israel would by now have pre-emptively attacked Iranian nuclear installations if it had the military capability and if…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 09/05/2013 - 11:45
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:38
‘Breaking the Code of History’ points out that a war is not merely a violent physical conflict, but that its energy and sources derive from the position of the…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 08/05/2013 - 11:44
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:37
The answer is both simple and yet seemingly almost impossible to accomplish, without massive commitment and effort. The Western World needs to rebuild its economies…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 07/05/2013 - 14:15
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:37
BTCH was written with the specific aim of analysing man's past, the structure of our world today and how our future could play out by the application of the theory of…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 07/05/2013 - 13:57
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:35
The rise and fall of empires and any other governmental system demonstrate two very different value models. As a system rises it is optimistic and looks to the future…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 18/04/2013 - 11:05
Last Update: Fri, 03/07/2015 - 23:24
Leadership should be viewed as service.
One of the key elements in resolving safely the crisis of the western world and ultimately moving towards a Sentient World…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 17/04/2013 - 09:56
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:33
Heroes and Empire Cycles
…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 16/04/2013 - 15:42
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:32
Further to our blog on the 15th March, gold fell after rumors of the Central Bank of Cyprus selling reserves to pay for the ongoing crisis, with rumors that other banks might well follow, sentiment…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 11/04/2013 - 15:18
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:31
China
To better understand the various drivers operating across the Korean peninsula one has to first appreciate the role of China in the situation.
…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 20/03/2013 - 14:55
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:31
The mechanism of the decline of empires, nations, companies, and individuals is rarely forced upon them by competitors, but instead is a relentless process of self…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 15/03/2013 - 09:46
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:29
Meanwhile Gold has once more dropped to levels in its recent range that have forced out weak longs. However when viewed from a distance this recent 1500 to 1900 range…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 14/03/2013 - 09:50
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:29
One of our key leading indicators has been copper. Of special note is that the contracting structure failed at its upper resistance zone and we now expect a break of…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 13/03/2013 - 10:09
Last Update: Wed, 24/05/2017 - 18:29
There is much talk of the growing mountain of Chinese debt, and comparisons have been made with the predicament of America. However there is one major difference,…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 12/03/2013 - 08:37
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:27
Of special note is the situation in Britain which we expect to continue to worsen, as the currency continues its decline, as a reflection of the loss of confidence in…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 11/03/2013 - 09:16
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:10
In Europe the picture continues to be very bleak. The bottom line is that the period of relative stability bought by Mario Draghi last summer, has been squandered by…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 08/03/2013 - 09:07
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:25
Both Empires and nations need an effective financial system to facilitate trade and wealth creation. For this reason financial centers are have been specifically…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 07/03/2013 - 10:22
Last Update: Wed, 18/12/2013 - 16:24
We expect the debt ceiling sequester negotiations to continue for many weeks to come and during this ongoing deadlock crisis, the reality of the US debt burden will…
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