Murrination Insights

One of the key principals expounded in Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) was that the majority of geopolitical conflicts are driven by resource competition. This…

On April 23rd, 2017 France will go to the polls and vote for a new president. Using the principals of Breaking the Code of History (BTCH), can we predict an outcome?…

I have to confess that yesterday for the first time since his arrival on the presidential trail, Trump said something that really surprised me. After his naristicly…

Ronseal is a British wood stain, paint and preservative manufacturer that originated the common, idiomatic slogan "Does exactly what it says on the tin".

Those who enjoy science fiction will already be familiar with the many films that feature Sentient Machines, some of which are benign manifestations and others much…

To answer the question of what will be the impact of Robotics on modern societies, we first have to look at both the Western democracies and the model of hierarchical…

Most of us are aware of the Industrial Revolution in Britain in the 19th century, but how many people have truly appreciated the social impact of the arrival of these…

Over the past ten years I have written a great deal about the rise of China and its challenge to America. Especially, during the last eight years of rapid decay caused…

To understand the relationship between Russia and the West today, we need to review the events of the past 100 years.

To that end…

Many readers have often joked that Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) and my blogs are pessimistic, and thus that I must be a pessimist! However, I have always…

WISHING YOU A MAGNIFICENT 2017 AND MAY YOUR ASPIRATIONS BECOME REALITY!

DAVID

David has been engaged in African agriculture since he co-founded Emvest back in 2007. On Monday 5 December, David spoke on the opening panel of the Global AgInvesting…

The following is a session write-up at the conference SuperInvestor, Amsterdam (17 November 2016) by the SuperReturn team.

David…

To the British electorate who voted to remain in the EU, the immediate knee-jerk reaction to Brexit in the form of a drop in the sterling confirmed their worst fears.…

Using the observation that under the "Make America great again" program, values will regress back up the empire cycle curve, it is easier to understand the context of…

Obama's policies were derived from the extreme position side of the wealth and power distribution political camp, whilst Trump's views originate from the diametrically…

One of the core conclusions in Breaking the Code of History is that America, as the last empire of the Super  Western Christian Empires entered the last of the Five…

For those that fear a Trump presidency from an emotional perspective, is it as bad as it feels?

Do you remember when people thought Reagan was brainless and…

In early 1942, the German battleship Scharnhorst and heavy battlecruiser Gneisenau made a daylight dash up the English Channel, from occupied France to the relative…

We have been watching Copper closely, as a continuing indicator of commodity price deflation. Overall, we expect the CRB index to drop by a further 50% from current…

We have long been negative on the future political integrity of the Euro and expect in all probability that the EU as we know will break up within the next two years.…

The horrendous events of 9/11 catalysed the ideas in Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) and the Five Stages of Empire Model interpreted 9/11 as the beginning of the…

The current Sterling crisis which the press claims is due to Brexit is receiving considerable press coverage. Indeed, the sentiment on the future of the Sterling is…

Although Britain’s Intelligence Services have continued to receive relatively generous funding over the past decade from an absolute spending perspective, it would…

Breaking the Code of History proposed that predatory nations in expansion behave much like animal predators in that they prefer to attack the weakest prey to limit any…

Historically, democracies have not been good at anticipating rising aggressor nations and preparing a commensurately strong defence. Furthermore, there is a long-…

Losses due to lack of preparedness at the Somme

As the memory fades of the details and the titanic nature of the struggle associated with both World Wars, today…

The concepts in BTCH explained that the majority of wars are always driven by the need for resources and thus related to the 54-year Kondratiev cycle. The new current…

Human affairs are all about balancing our relationships, both on a personal level and geopolitically between nations. Changes to the equilibrium always have…

The following series of blogs has been extracted from my recent paper "A new model for Britain's Defence Forces". If you would like a free copy please contact christel…

Throughout our Brexit commentary we have maintained that the referendum was in effect a civil war of regionalisation, brought about by the innate expansive energy…

Interestingly, there is no official Olympic medal table and the methodology of how it has been unofficially calculated has varied over recent years. For the 2016…

In humanity’s ancient past, survival was the key focus; but we are social animals, and fights would have occurred in order to resolve differences between members of a…

The organisation of human social structures has traditionally been hierarchical. This behaviour extends back to the time of tribal chiefs, kings and emperors. All were…

When one considers the lightning and decisive change in power following the EU referendum, one can only interpret the shift as a massive affirmation of Britain's…

So, the all important question is "What happens next?".

Using the methodology within BTCH we would expect the following to unfold…

The core principle of Breaking the Code of History (BCTH) and the five stages of empire is that the first stage, regionalisation, cannot take place without a core…

The aftermath

1. There is a point of reflection during this process that is critical to the outcome, and that is how well or badly…

So, the decision has been made by one party to leave the other. The path is now 50% completed and the agony of indecision over. However, it is now replaced by actions…

One of the core premises in Breaking the Code of History is that human behaviour is based on a series of fractals. Thus, individual, emotional and behavioural patterns…

Listening to the recent six-way ITV debate on the Brexit referendum, I thought that it brought into the open the key messages from each side of the debate. On the one…

There is a powerful scene in Star Wars Episode III where the Chancellor Palpatine, having schemed and plotted to gain control of the galaxy, addresses the Senate of…

Like so many dynamics in the world, when it comes to global trading policies there are two polarised approaches.

On the one side,…

Conventional methods of predicting the future are normally so inaccurate as to be worthless. Thus, any conjecture for the British economy made by our politicians and…

Polls show that there is still a large group of the electorate that are undecided because the arguments are still not clear to stay or leave. Echoing this confusion,…

In “Breaking the Code of History” I dedicated a whole chapter to the process that precedes arguments and conflicts, which I called ‘polarisation’. This process takes…

In previous Murrinations we have discussed the two opposing energies of the Brexit debate that echo the 1642-1651 English Civil War.

Listening to the hypothetical arguments from the UK government about the damage to the economy that Brexit will cause is an obvious attempt to sow fear. An argument…

Cameron yesterday made the rash statement that Brexit would increase the probability of WW3.

As one who has made the cause of war a…

Over six month ago, I predicted that a Republican president would win the next election in November and that Trump would be the Republican nomination. Thus, Trump would…

Long-term stability in global geopolitics is ever only fleeting.

Millennia ago, the major states of ancient Greece and their…

Obama’s recent visit to the UK and his intervention into the Brexit referendum represents an unprecedented American interference in British politics and will be…

The rather appropriately named 'Trough Wars' are characterised by a nation that finds itself in an economic and social trough. Such a nation chooses to distract its…

In sharp comparison, Boris Johnson’s choice of project ‘Hope’ is perfectly positioned to resonate with which will almost inevitably be the winning side of this…

Cameron’s project ‘Fear’ is an ironic choice upon which to base his campaign, as it casts him in the classical role of the archetype monarch who governs from a narrow…

I was driven to overcome my dyslexia and commit my ideas to paper in “Breaking the Code of History” because I feared for all of our children's future.

Those watching China will no doubt be both impressed and surprised by the rise of President Xi.

Since his arrival he has conducted…

Mankind has caused 322 animal extinctions in the past 500 years (with two-thirds of those in the last two centuries). Sadly, this is an inevitable consequence of man's…

The levers of economic and military strength will not be sufficient to ablate China’s powerful military growth. Additionally, Japan will need to engage in a new form…

There is a long history of rivalry and warfare between China and Japan. The wars between these two great nations date back to the Baekje–Tang War (660–663). Then much…

1 Political will

Until recently China’s foreign policy has been shaped by Deng Xiaoping who largely pursued a non-interference…

One of the key focuses in Breaking The Code Of History (BTCH) was that China since 1996 has been in the most dynamic second phase of empire cycle, which is aptly…

It may surprise many to know that Britain, the once greatest empire within the Super Western Christian Empires, has been in a new national cycle of expansion since the…

So, will Britain stay or leave the EU in 2016? To answer the question, I will summarise the points that I have made over the past few years about Europe and the…

I have been watching the American presidential race with great fascination, as the principles of social dynamics explained within BTCH play so clearly out within the…

The evidence given in BTCH demonstrates that climate change is a very real phenomenon. The future temperature levels implied by the current 400pm Co2 concentrations (up 42.8% from 280ppm before…

The Islamic world is being driven by prolific demographics, producing a state of aggressive expansion as represented by Islamic fundamentalism from the shores of the…

China is well on the stage of ascension to empire and in the critical process of resource acquisition. This is also the core strategy of the Chinese expansion in…

With respect to the state of British politics, as predicted by BTCH concepts, it has moved to the right; driven by the need for wealth creation.

There is always a time when the intentions of an individual or that of a nation shift from the hidden to uncloaked. That is the point where the wise prepare for action…

The answer is simple, collective delusion.

Today, in the Western world, the light in our tunnel of debt is offered up as a balanced…

After the dust has settled from the UK Parliamentary vote to bomb Daesh in Syria and Obama's statement last Friday that the US would destroy the fundamentalists, are…