Murrination Insights

I consider South Africa to be my second home and have a love for this nation with its beauty, investment potential, warm population and close family ties. As such, I…

With a whole section in BTCH devoted to disease, it is with great concern that we have watched the progress of antibiotic resistant microbes that could return us to…

John Deverell, ex-Special Forces Brigadier who worked in the Middle East for a decade, briefs:

"The target is different this time…

The long-term challenge from immigration is the occupation from within. The remnants of the old Super Western Christian Empire in the form of the EU now has a very low…

The immediate challenge for Europe has been caused by the relentless flow of refugees that initially presented itself as a humanitarian disaster which Europe quite…

Immigration is a very emotive topic within European society and as such I feel it is perhaps best understood objectively using the dynamic social principals of the…

China’s civil war between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) started in 1927 and ended in 1950. This civil war was the third largest…

Remembrance Day in Britain is similar to Veterans Day in America.

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History remembers the Fall of Troy, caused by the disastrous decision to drag the Trojan Horse through the gates of Troy past its impenetrable walls. But it is less…

Currently, Washington's halls of power and its think tanks are awash with the belief that there is a need to change its engagement strategy with China. This shift is…

In the five stages of empire model outlined in Breaking the Code of History the expansive stages tend to take place within the context of the establishment of an economy’s wealth, military power…

The polarisation process between China and America is now well underway, with the primary energy of China now manifesting a secondary defensive response from America.…

So how could Japan attempt to defuse the primary polarisation effects from China caused by their past actions? One of the key focuses for recent Chinese anger has been…

At a time when the rise of China is about to enter a new phase with an overt locking of horns with America, it seems appropriate to examine the polarisation process…

Today’s Chinese military parade, ostensible in celebration of victory over Japan, can only be viewed as a clear declaration of national intent. Casting our eyes back…

In BTCH we discussed the concept that shocks such as this deflationary shock affect every economy simultaneously and usually with the same magnitude. However, what…

The anatomy of this deflationary shock has been a first stage fall in commodity prices whilst stock prices ignored the move. Then, led by the Chinese stock market, a…

We have for quite a while now been predicting a sharp period of deflation from 2015 to as late as 2018. This prediction has been based on the Kondratieff cycles’…

The Greek crisis has cast a very uncomfortable light on the reality of the EU.

In Greece they have had a referendum based on a…

Since man developed increasingly sophisticated societies, the burden of the state has been steadily and systematically increasing. As empires in the past have found to…

Greece joined the EU believing they were becoming part of something larger that would provide an economic advantage to their nation, in return for giving up key…

According to the BTCH five stages of Empire model, at the end of the first stage which is regionalisation, a nation or region passes through the Darwinian fire of a…

Whilst Obama's pivot to Asia and strengthened alliance with Japan should be considered as both wise and a geopolitical necessity, the US President has during the past…

Over the past couple of weeks two events have left me laughing for at least ten minutes afterwards. The first was watching the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls lose his seat…

In 2014-09-23 11:22 I wrote “A well-educated electorate allows the majority of voters to understand the logic behind complex arguments that they are expected to vote…

The five stages of Empire model for a democracy recognise that there are two fundamental drivers to the political forces within a society. On the one hand, the forces…

While millions follow on Twitter a proxy war in eastern Ukraine between Cold War nemeses, there is a bigger and far more serious fight that is well underway and…

The primary role of a nation’s leadership should be to ensure that its citizens remain secure from attack so that they can prosper in peace. This can only be achieved…

The West faces a long multi-decade struggle against the forces of the rise of the Middle East on two fronts: domestically and geopolitically.

This group may yet play a critical role in the resolution of the regional civil war. Turkey is the prime example and in anticipation of its desire to lead the region…

The Jihadists first appeared back in 1923 in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood (who have now rejected violence). Today, we are aware of the most prominent of these…

This regional civil war has actually been going on for longer than we realise. However it has only come to our notice more recently since its expansion has threatened…

This is a somewhat misleading description of current events, which seemingly only has meaning in the Chinese culture where they view spring as a time when energy rises…

To better understand the current situation in the Middle East, one has to understand the 1500 years since the appearance of Islam and its interaction with the older…

I always find it fascinating when Western People tell me that China is not a threat as it has never shown any signs of military expansion in its history. In my opinion…

We have already expressed our concern over Western policies in Ukraine that have pushed Russia away from the West into the hands of China, the negative consequences of…

It is Interesting that whilst Churchill's greatness is now obvious for all of us to appreciate. However, throughout his career he was viewed by many of those around…

I should first declare my hand when I say that my first son is called Winston (certainly not after a drug dealer in the Caribbean!) and my second Horatio. Whilst I…

1. A return to the Cold War paradigm The Battle of Trafalgar in 1805 commenced 10 decades of the British Empire’s control of the globe. During that period, the strength of its navy and the absence…

1. 2015-2025 The relentless growth of the human population to an estimated 11bn in 2100 will put immense pressure on food supplies.

2. 2015-2025 Population expansion combined with climate…

1. 2015 The world will fail to take the rapid action required to prevent the acceleration of climate change and its pervasive negative impacts. Thus, temperatures will…

1. 2015 The West needs to reverse the disastrous consequences of the war in Ukraine and to attract Russia away from China which will be necessary to complete the containment of the latter. To not…

1. 2015 Africa will continue to be the continent that constantly demonstrates the greatest economic growth.

2. 2015-2020 Africa is…

1. 2015 Using the nomenclature of BTCH the current Middle Eastern civil war is classified as a regional civil war with the unconscious social purpose of creating a unified region with a leadership…

1. 2015 With America and Europe in decline, that only leaves Britain on an upward trajectory within the old Western Christian Super Empire.

1. 2015-2017 We are currently in a two year deflationary period that will effect commodities and equities, and drive bond yields lower (except in the case of a US/…

1. 2015 America has been in decline for over a decade, but this process has been disguised by the printing press, which has created an artificial impression of growth. The reality is that the…

1. 2015-2016 The European model of a forced agglomeration without demographic expansion has failed, with no hope for rejuvenation due the entrenchment of Brussels' bureaucracy.

2. 2015-2016…

This is the revised edition of yesterday's blog, with apologies from the editor for the few typos.

1. In 2015 initially, China will continue to mount an…

Sadly 2015 looks set to be potentially another 2008 with respect to a very large market decline in stocks (30-50%), real estate (10-20%) and commodities.

One of the foremost principles of BTCH is that the primary reason why mankind fights wars is over resources. This fascinating image of the world's commodity importers and exporters clearly shows…

The Board and executives of Sony must be consumed by not only embarrassment, but also the realisation that they failed to enact the appropriate security measures to…

During the Christmas Holidays I spent some time reviewing the ongoing evidence for climate change and updating my climate change sector in BTCH.

Britain and America have since 1945 produced the most effective nuclear attack submarines. The Royal Navy’s Astute class subs are said to be the best in the world,…

Carriers and amphibious forces need escort vessels to be protected against subsurface, surface and airborne threats. Without highly capable escorts a carrier is a…

Carriers have been the capital ships of the oceans since 1939, especially in the vast Pacific Ocean which will potentially be the combat theatre of any US-Chinese…

The BTCH analysis is that China is a rapidly expanding power that seeks to challenge and relieve America of its super power status. Thus, the key question is: “Can…

Viewed from the perspective of Al-Qaeda, the greatest success of the 9/11 attacks was not the destruction and hugh loss of life, but that it resulted in America…

In previous Murrinations, we have predicted that Britain is the only nation within the old SWCE (the Super Western Christian Empire) that is in phase of expansion,…

Iran represents the Shia World within Islam and was responsible for leading the challenges to the western geopolitical architecture in the region. However since then,…

Revolutions in military affairs can be originated by either the dominant or the challenging empire. However, the challenging empire is most likely to seek to take…

BTCH defines wars into different categories and in so doing is able to provide better understanding of their character and prognosis. One such classification is a…

The high turnout on the Scottish referendum and the split between the YES and NO camps raise some interesting questions.

The…

A Q&A session between a long standing Murrinations' reader, Anthony Payne of Peregrine Communications and David:

1. Question:…

Over two years ago, in October 2012, I wrote a piece on The Death of Great Britain that, as we go into the referendum today, would be instructive for our readers to review as an example of the…

In the initial regionalisation phase of an empire collective self-definition (i.e. social values) is relatively low, a situation that Britain is currently facing with…

The demographic trends in the UK and Europe support the 5 stages of empire projections discussed in Part I with a shrinking German population and marginal growth in…

The impending vote by Scotland to secede from the union, coupled with the threat from radicalised terrorists returning from the Middle East, raises critical questions …

A regular topic in my blogs is the rise of China, a process that I have suggested that, like all other powers in a similar position on the empire cycle, is far from…

During August the Chinese have again in the fourth such incident this year aggressively intercepted a US intelligence gathering plane. The intercept itself is not the…

The challenge of the next decade is all too clear to a Student of History. On the one side are the groups or nations with expansive demographics such as the various…