Trump, in a recent tweet, really set the cat amongst the pigeons!
"Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China,"
Mr…
Global Forecaster
Understanding past cycles to predict future geopolitical and market events
Murrination Insights
Geopolitical Forecasts
Murrinations Insights will help you future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions and strategies, to help you anticipate future events. Based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market and environmental developments.
Posted by David Murrin on Sun, 01/09/2019 - 10:04
Last Update: Thu, 05/09/2019 - 11:42
Posted by David Murrin on Sat, 31/08/2019 - 11:03
Last Update: Sat, 31/08/2019 - 16:58
Dear Murrination reader
Thank you for your support over the years.
It is almost a decade since Breaking The code of History was published with its predictions for the Future.…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 22/08/2019 - 10:20
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:59
Stock Markets
The global stock market complex has clearly turned downwards from the point we located a few weeks ago at 3020 on the S & p 500 with a 3050 limit. Over the past years the…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 20/08/2019 - 10:18
Last Update: Tue, 20/08/2019 - 10:30
During the height of the British Empire, when the Royal Navy forced China into submission during the First Opium war, one of the outcomes was that Hong Kong became a British Colony with its key…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 19/08/2019 - 17:57
Last Update: Tue, 20/08/2019 - 11:05
Since 9/11 the world has been focused on the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, which is essentially at the cutting edge of a resurgence of Islamic identity. As such it represents a rising…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 15/08/2019 - 08:50
Last Update: Thu, 15/08/2019 - 08:55
Applying the Code of History to the current political situation indicates that the end of the British democratic civil war is in sight and a new dawn beckons.
I recently gave an…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 15/08/2019 - 08:28
Last Update: Thu, 15/08/2019 - 08:55
The story so far
So far we have called the highs of the equity markets accurately and have seen the first significant drops which coincide with ratcheting up of US-China tension and the Fed…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 17/05/2019 - 16:21
Last Update: Sat, 10/08/2019 - 15:49
Casting one’s mind back to the S&P low of March 2009 when most the family office’s wealth had halved since the Nov 2007 high. Diversification had provided no protection against the collapse,…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 15/05/2019 - 15:43
Last Update: Wed, 10/07/2019 - 12:22
Background
The current discourse that occupies Britain over Brexit is a critical issue for the Nation. Simultaneously, it has been a fascinating current day example of the power of the…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 08/05/2019 - 13:54
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 13:06
For over a decade, I have been highlighting that with the Super Western Empire in the final phase of decline, that it would manifest leadership that would be consistently poor. Characterized by…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 11/04/2019 - 19:30
Last Update: Tue, 04/06/2019 - 13:18
Murrinations seek to provide relevant and prophetic predictions of Geopolitical events, based on the application of The Code of History.
At the time of the June 23rd, 2016 referendum we…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 26/03/2019 - 22:15
Last Update: Thu, 28/03/2019 - 10:13
Regional civil wars are sadly not swift occurrences. They take time to build momentum and to reach a crescendo and conclusion. As a prime example, the English civil war spanned for almost a decade…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 26/03/2019 - 21:51
Last Update: Thu, 28/03/2019 - 10:05
Since 2016 we have predicted that Brexit would result in a no deal outcome. The negotiations were best modelled as an acrimonious separation with the worst possible outcome. However this model…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 14/03/2019 - 12:52
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:58
Reviewing America's progress in containing the momentum of the Chinese challenge we must conclude that so far it is “too little too late”. Trump’s America needs to find another gear level to be…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 12/03/2019 - 12:00
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:57
We can use the nine containment points America needed to act upon to assess Chinese progress with its' strategy:
1. Learn to respect and understand Chinese history and culture - the…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 11/03/2019 - 14:59
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:57
During the 17 years since the genesis of BTCH, the prediction of China’s rise and the stages that it would go through to achieve its goal of becoming the next global…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 07/03/2019 - 12:42
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:57
Trump is no doubt a strong leader and the majority of his policies are the right ones to reassert American influence. However domestically Trump, and thus America, are…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 01/03/2019 - 21:30
Last Update: Mon, 11/09/2023 - 14:01
Since 2001 and 9/11, America’s three presidents have all contributed to America's decline in their own inimitable ways. In this America has conformed to the characteristics of this phase of…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 25/02/2019 - 11:29
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:57
It has been some 17 years since the genesis of Breaking The Code of History (BTCH) which followed the 9/11 attacks, and 8 years since its publication in 2010.
The first core geopolitical…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 22/02/2019 - 16:23
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:56
BTCH has long argued that the Brexit debate represents the energy of a civil war of regionalization acted out for the first time in mankind's history, peacefully through a democratic process. An…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 07/02/2019 - 13:37
Last Update: Thu, 07/02/2019 - 13:39
Fri, 8 February 2019 - 20:30
David will be appearing on CNBC at 08.30hrs on Friday 8th February talking about his…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 12/12/2018 - 13:38
If we compare today's Brexit with our two past examples of the English civil war and Henry VIIIs reformation we find an anomaly in the new British cycle. At the bottom of the British national…
Posted by David Murrin on Sun, 09/12/2018 - 22:18
Last Update: Fri, 13/09/2019 - 11:09
The British parliament is now approaching a historic moment. It is about to vote on May’s Chequers plan for Brexit.
It therefore seems an appropriate time to review the ‘Five Stages of…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 05/12/2018 - 11:47
Last Update: Fri, 18/12/2020 - 10:51
David’s new book will be available for Xmas 2018.
We have created a limited edition of 500 books to commemorate WW1. The cost is £19.95 and it is only available at https://www.davidmurrin.…
Posted by David Murrin on Sun, 11/11/2018 - 09:39
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 13:01
Winston Churchill once said about history, ‘The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward’. As we approach the centenary of the end of World War I (WWI), perhaps it is time to ask…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 18/09/2018 - 23:22
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:55
When confronted with extreme situations the majority of us short circuit and attempt to continue our normal routines. Even in the face of obvious and impending danger…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 31/05/2018 - 13:18
Last Update: Thu, 31/05/2018 - 13:20
Trump’s strategy to reverse America's global decline has impacted three critical areas of American foreign policy: Russian relations, the Middle East and China.
I have not included North Korea…
Posted by David Murrin on Sat, 07/04/2018 - 18:27
Last Update: Fri, 02/08/2019 - 17:32
The following article was written in response to an invitation to write an alternative viewpoint to an article titled "Why we should realise that sterling has been, and still is, much too strong"…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 26/03/2018 - 10:20
Last Update: Thu, 09/11/2023 - 10:07
We have often discussed the psychology of national aggression, based on where each party is on their empire cycle. In the case of Britain and Russia, both parties have been going through post-…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 14/02/2018 - 12:25
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:55
One of the core thesis of BTCH is that there are five stages of an Empire: the first of which is characterised by “copy and assimilate” as a rising system seeks to…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 06/02/2018 - 07:40
Last Update: Sun, 11/08/2019 - 20:29
We have mentioned that we expect a trade war to unfold between Trump’s America and China this year so how does that translate into the global markets?
…Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 01/02/2018 - 09:32
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:54
During the positive phases of an empire leaders serve the people they lead, which is in sharp contrast to the negative self-centred leadership values demonstrated in…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 31/01/2018 - 08:58
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:54
“Breaking the code of History” defines five distinct stages within every empire or human system cycle. The first three stages represent positive expansion and the last…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 29/01/2018 - 09:36
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:53
America has been building the political pressure towards both North Korea and China to bring about a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. That…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 04/12/2017 - 10:45
Last Update: Thu, 28/11/2019 - 11:46
Trump's success in passing his tax bill is a major achievement and one that in the long run could make the world a safer place. It is the first of two critical…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 29/11/2017 - 11:44
Last Update: Thu, 30/11/2017 - 10:04
One topic that my readers know I feel deeply concerned about, is Britain's failed defence policy and the urgent need to remedy this potentially catastrophic situation…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 23/11/2017 - 12:02
Last Update: Thu, 23/11/2017 - 13:32
The King is dead, long live the King. The kleptocracy of King Bob has now ended to great applause. But what does come next for the oppressed and long-suffering people…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 15/11/2017 - 10:49
Last Update: Wed, 15/11/2017 - 10:54
The week before last, out of the blue I was bombarded with simultaneous questions about bitcoin by friends and 'Breaking the Code of History' readers, some on behalf…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 30/10/2017 - 12:10
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:52
The Five Stages of Empire model describes the exponential rise of a system in the 'expansion to empire' phase, which compares sharply to the overextension and decline…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 18/10/2017 - 11:45
Last Update: Wed, 18/10/2017 - 15:31
For well over a decade Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) has argued that the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere have reached a critical point where, even if we…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 16/10/2017 - 18:46
Last Update: Mon, 16/10/2017 - 18:47
While I am told that Hammond is a very pleasant chap, I have to take issue with his political record, policies and the damage he has done to our nation. There are…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 05/10/2017 - 09:11
Last Update: Thu, 05/10/2017 - 10:06
As we have often described in the context of Breaking the Code of History, Prime Minister May falls into the model of a dictator post a regional civil war, employing…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 02/10/2017 - 16:30
Last Update: Tue, 03/10/2017 - 12:04
Red lines are dangerous concepts in the game of geopolitics. When they are drawn, they have to be enforceable and the creator has to have the intent to follow through…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 21/08/2017 - 12:26
Last Update: Sun, 17/11/2024 - 17:33
During the arms race in the late thirties, Britain and the Royal Navy did all they could to ensure that the nation preserved its naval dominance over Germany. However…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 04/08/2017 - 10:27
Last Update: Fri, 04/08/2017 - 10:34
Since 2005, Breaking the Code of History has predicted the rise of Chinese economic power that would directly compete with the American empire. The nature of the…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 26/06/2017 - 11:18
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 13:01
8. Understanding the drivers of this clash of cultures
Referring to our series of blogs on The clash of Christian and Islamic cultures in the 20th century, it…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 23/06/2017 - 11:16
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 13:01
Prime Minister May’s comment "Enough is enough" is so terribly English, but also long overdue. Indeed, her subsequent comment that she is prepared to compromise human…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 21/06/2017 - 10:34
Last Update: Wed, 21/06/2017 - 11:41
David will be offering a series of summer geopolitical briefings aboard Cetewayo over the duration of a day, aimed at senior managers and officers in businesses and…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 19/06/2017 - 10:40
Last Update: Mon, 19/06/2017 - 14:09
Years ago, it was China who refused to recognise climate change, because it believed that to do so would inhibit its industrial grow and completion with America. Then…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 16/06/2017 - 10:38
Whilst continuing to believe that the Democratic Alliance (DA) will win the 2019 election, there is one area that is a weak spot for the party.
…Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 14/06/2017 - 11:28
We, as individuals and nations learn the most from our mistakes. Especially, from the painful ones! So, the first step for the Conservatives is to take a deep breath…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 13/06/2017 - 11:00
Last Update: Tue, 13/06/2017 - 14:22
After such a calamitous election result, it is time to take stock and analyse the lessons; lessons that should provide a guide as to how Britain can navigate its path…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 02/06/2017 - 10:50
We previously noted that as part of America’s force build up in preparation for a pre-emptive strike against North Korea, the Americans would concentrate at least…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 30/05/2017 - 08:15
Last Update: Tue, 30/05/2017 - 08:19
The closure of the difference between the polls of the Conservatives and Labour has caused great consternation to those who thought it would be a landslide victory.…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 23/05/2017 - 11:43
Using the model from ‘Breaking the Code of History’, we have identified that Britain has started a new cycle. The UK ‘bottomed out’ in 1970, completed its…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 15/05/2017 - 11:23
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:52
The Democratic Alliance, on the other hand, is a very different proposition for SA’s future. It is a party of wealth creation, which is what the nation most requires,…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 12/05/2017 - 11:06
Last Update: Wed, 28/10/2020 - 13:14
Historically, once a regional civil war has been won it is rare that it is refought, although the feeling that it might happen again resounds through the society for…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 10/05/2017 - 10:13
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:51
The phase of dictatorship ended after Mandela’s death and the pendulum swung back to a form of leadership that was at the other side of the swing. In this case, the…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 08/05/2017 - 13:50
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 13:27
I have been asked with increasing frequency regarding my outlook for SA, set against what feels to be a wave of negative sentiment for the country’s future.…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 26/04/2017 - 11:00
Last Update: Wed, 26/04/2017 - 14:01
Prime Minister May’s call for an election should not have taken anyone by surprise. The surprise was that she had not announced it sooner. The Conservatives were not…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 24/04/2017 - 12:23
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:49
Trump has now put down the American gauntlet to North Korea and drawn his own red line across the Korean peninsula. By doing so, he is attempting to force China’s hand…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 21/04/2017 - 14:21
Last Update: Fri, 21/04/2017 - 14:23
With France about to go to the polls, the support for leaving the EU seems to be stronger than ever, as advocated by with two of four key candidates: Marine Le Pen, on…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 10/04/2017 - 14:59
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:48
In the Murrination, Brexit XIX: The EU referendum and the divorce process, Part III, we made the analogy between the divorce process of a married couple and Britain…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 07/04/2017 - 14:09
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:48
Assad's use of Sarin again in Syria this week was unforgivable. Not only due to the cruelty of the attack, but because repeated use of gas as a weapon makes it more…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 27/03/2017 - 12:37
Last Update: Mon, 04/03/2024 - 13:40
Budget/economic policy
Meanwhile, Britain’s economic policy has not adjusted to a model that encourages risk and growth through low taxation. This is not…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 24/03/2017 - 11:22
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:47
On Wednesday, March 29th, Britain will once more officially begin to chart its own course as a sovereign nation. 288 Days after the famous Brexit referendum vote, Sir…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 15/03/2017 - 08:57
Having discussed why money is not enough to win an arms race, we should now revert to how much money would be enough for the USA to be able to stand a chance…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 13/03/2017 - 09:36
Last Update: Mon, 13/03/2017 - 13:12
Since WW2, the American carriers have given the USN dominance over the world’s oceans. Indeed, the power of these ships is etched on the Chinese thought process after…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 10/03/2017 - 09:02
Last Update: Fri, 10/03/2017 - 09:40
Naval challenges have been a major focus of two arms races that led to the global conflicts of WW1 and WW2. So, they should be taken very seriously. In the first arms…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 08/03/2017 - 09:38
For those who do not believe that history has a nasty habit of repeating itself, welcome to the 5th Industrialised arms race that has now officially started. The…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 06/03/2017 - 13:24
Last Update: Mon, 26/10/2020 - 12:47
Whilst the world has been focused on Trump's election and presidency, the last (following the Brexit vote and the election of Trump) of my three predictions for 2016…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 27/02/2017 - 11:32
Last Update: Tue, 07/03/2017 - 19:12
North Korea has always been opportunistic with respect to playing the gaps in American foreign policy focus. For example, it chose to make its nuclear breakout when…
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