Murrination Insights

The Union of England and Scotland goes back to 1707. But, as always, historical events have a backstory. In this case, the Act of Union bailed out a bankrupt…

Britain’s armoured capability should not be weakened at the very moment global military threats are increasing. Tanks remain central to deterrence and land warfare, but they must be…

Brexit marked a peaceful but profound national transformation, giving Britain the chance to break from old systems and prepare for a more dangerous decade ahead. Yet the pandemic and…

The 2020 election is unfolding against a dangerous disconnect between inflated equity markets and the harsh economic reality facing ordinary Americans. While Trump and the Fed have…

The above diagrams show the Typhoon class submarine (top), until recently the largest submarine ever built, compared…

Until only recently, Britain and the West have severely underestimated Putin. NATO nations have been guilty of appalling sloppiness in not adapting their foreign policy…

1.0 The first of the significant warning signals at the start of 2020 that indicated a major demand slump and impending financial crisis was the behaviour of the…

In today's rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, lessons drawn from history are more vital than ever. In my new book, The Road to Wars, I discuss the algorithmic expansion of an aggressive and…

According to Sun Tzu, the prevention of conflict is essential to a sound military strategy: war itself is a last resort, high cost choice. This perspective is particularly critical for older…

This maxim specifically applies to America's strategy that should be focussed on deterring China from aggression and a potential WW3 through the critical commodity cycle peak of 2025 to 2027. Key…

China’s rise is not just economic or military; it is strategic. The West understands China far less than China understands the West, leaving Western powers dangerously exposed to a…

History repeatedly shows that great-power conflict is often driven less by ideology than by internal economic pressures and the strategic choices they force upon expansionist states…

The world has entered a historic power shift from West to East. What once seemed impossible — the decline of US-led Western dominance — is now unfolding rapidly, with rising…

China’s growing economic power has given it influence far beyond its borders. Nations that once fiercely resisted foreign pressure are increasingly finding themselves constrained by…

There is a story, that since I heard it, has stayed with me as a sobering lesson of greed, arrogance and short-sightedness. Under British rule, the mandate of Palestine had been…

New threats begat new alliances, especially when an old hegemony is in decline and needs allies to hold back the young hegemonic challenger. I sought to anticipate what the new alliance structure…

In Part 1, Global Hegemony Requires Shipbuilding To Create a Dominant Navy, I raised the alarm that global naval hegemony is dependent on shipbuilding capability and that…

In previous Murrinations, I mentioned that as Trump fell behind, as an unconstrained narcissist, I expected that he would make irrational mistakes that compounded the…

For those following my Arkent and Market analysis, you will know that I called the high of Phase 2 (the stock market correction from the March lows) as it unfolded on…

Britain is in A new Phase Of Expansion and Racial Integration

Britain abolished slavery in 1833, which meant that racial integration commenced…

Over the past years and months, the British government's views on China have fallen into conflicting camps. The Liberals, starting with Osborne and Cameron, have sought to conduct business and…

Although America and Britain speak the same language, they exhibit many fundamental differences with respect to social integration of its various races. Today in…

Human societies have always been and continue to be hierarchical. This means that intrinsically there are those with greater opportunities than others. The historical shift from early…

Whilst the Boris government’s response has been lamentable through every stage of the pandemic crisis, I have explained in The Battle At The Heart Of The Boris Government, the processes behind…

Although the last couple of weeks might have seemed relatively quiet in the financial markets, I believe the scene has been set for interesting times ahead, as our Phase…

This Murrination follows my article Are We At War written on 30th March 2020 which will give context to the key questions that need to be asked.  Early in January 2020,…

Since February, when the Wuhan pandemic began to spread across the world, Trump and America have been on the back foot. The USA has mismanaged the domestic response…

Global Government Responses

1.    Asia has demonstrated energy, organisation, and discipline in controlling the pandemic consistent with their phase of expansion. Their economies are still…

As of today, there have been eight million people infected and 433,500 dead as a result of the Wuhan Virus. America has been brutally hit with 2m infected and curves are…

My work as a global forecaster, predicting change in the form of geopolitical shifts and market moves can, at times, be immensely challenging due to the collective…

1.      The current delusional gap between economic reality and the stock market will close. The Phase 2 correction will end imminently and, following a sharp reversal sentiment, will swing to the…

If Britain were to enact a long term visionary and strategic policy, to front load the investment into industry and technology on a vast scale, it would catalyse Britain…

Britain faces a rapidly changing geopolitical environment in which economic resilience, secure supply chains and strategic partnerships are becoming increasingly important. A clear…

Under my Five Phase Life Cycle model, expansion unfolds in a reinforcing cycle. Decline unfolds in a sequence of destructive events that finally overwhelm a system or empire. America went into my…

One has to ask, what changed in the mind of President Xi? Before the pandemic spread to the West President Xi was extremely careful not to antagonize America by over-responding to civil unrest in…

This pandemic has brought many issues in our society to our attention, as the social camouflage drops away and the real nature of relationships and human systems…

Many battles in history, have taught us that controlling the high ground has always been strategically advantageous. At the start of WW1 planes and zeppelins were used for…

During Brexit, we were able to predict the twists, turns and outcomes in a highly intense political conflict. This is because we used the transitional phase between the first stage of an empire (…

I believe the biggest threat to global stability in the next decade is China. Either the American economy, political will and military capability will be strong enough to deter the threat, as with…

What is the biggest challenge humanity faces in the next decade? 

I don’t believe it would be this pandemic or climate change. Instead, I believe it to be the…

 Lessons from British History

Wars, as I have explained before, are entropy tsunamis and similarly so is this Wuhan Pandemic. They are…

In today's rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape lessons drawn from history are more vital than ever. In my new book, The Road to Wars, I discuss the algorithmic expansion of an aggressive and…

In the tumultuous times that we are currently experiencing, as power shifts from West to East and the old empire of the Dollar comes under terminal pressure, where does you place your money?…

My book Breaking the Code of History published in 2009, highlighted that America was the last empire in a long series comprising what I called, the Super Western Christian Empire (…

On a price basis, the evidence is the US and European stock markets completed their peak on Thursday 30th April. Since then, we have been in the early stages of Phase 3. This  means reality and…

Today, we celebrate VE Day.

On  May 8th 1945 after almost six years of war, Hitler's Nazis were crushed into total surrender. The Nazis were a formidable foe, who never relented in their…

In LESSONS FROM PAST ENTROPY SHOCKS I hypothesised that the Wuhan Virus will accelerate the natural underlying trends in systems by accelerating either expansion or decline. The most obvious…

US-China Polarisation

The polarisation process between China and America has been escalating over the past five years, as China’s challenge towards American power has become more obvious.…

For those of you who believe the flattening of the curves and release from lockdown will see the end of this pandemic, I am very sorry to disappoint you. One only has to examine Singapore. They…

1.0 A Critical Juncture in Modern History

Reality is a brutal overlord. Winning the war against the Wuhan Virus will be a long term global challenge. I believe it will take the world…

I am the first to recognise the Brexit process exemplified British national character, one of self-determination. This is something that provides hope for the future.…

Norway 1940 All Over Again

Whatever bad advice has been given to the leadership Boris must take responsibility for…

The first of the big warning signals that my Arkent scenario was right was the behaviour of the commodity sector, especially oil. In a world where economic numbers were…

The Wuhan Virus mutates in proportion to the number of people it infects. When it mutates it then produces new strains/types that could create simultaneous pandemics. This is of…

Yesterday marked Phase 2’s end in the Wuhan Market Crisis. For those of you who are not Arkent Scenario subscribers, Phase 1 was the first leg of the equity drop. Phase 2 was the corrective bounce…

When fighting a war, it is critical to analyse an enemy's weaknesses in order to achieve victory. One of those weaknesses in the Wuhan Virus is it’s codependency as it needs our…

One of the main weapons of the Wuhan Virus against humanity, is to break down human social cohesion as we isolate to prevent infection. This effectively reduces…

Situation Report

The spread of the Pandemic has officially infected 1,699,500 and killed over 102,800 people. However, the real numbers will be far higher.…

Where Are We Now?

Since September last year, I have been following my Arkent scenario that mapped out the key stages running up to the equity markets’ peak…

5.1 Lessons from British History.

Wars, as I have explained before, are entropy tsunamis and similarly so is this Wuhan Pandemic. They are survived by the nation with the strongest…

The role of National Security Advisor in America is one of the key roles in the US administration. Yet, in the British government, the role of the National Security…

1.0 The Vital Importance of Testing

Examining the responses of nations and their success in combating the Wuhan Virus one trend is very clear; greater testing leads to improved containment…

Applying the analogy of Noah’s Ark by likening it to the economic shutdown of the Western economies, I note that it has been 41 days since my Murrination of February 22nd - LESSONS…

1.0 Accessing Historical Collective Experience and National Energy

My study of Empire Cycles suggests that Britain has a unique history from which it can draw…

During the  Battle of Britain in 1940, the RAF faced the overwhelming odds of Goering's Luftwaffe. However, Air Chief Marshal of Fighter Command Hugh Dowding was a unique innovator…

1.0 Why Do Humans Fight Wars?

My conclusion in Breaking the Code of History is that human systems fight over only one essential thing;…

Voices from History

In another time, America responded to the Japanese occupation of key airfields in French Indochina by freezing Japanese assets on July 26, 1941. America then tightened…

The Failure To Prepare for this Wuhan Pandemic

Historically, modern democratic states have never been ready for the aggressive actions of a rising expansive nation in…

Why is it that children (and some adults) are scared of the dark? Or that many are freaked out when swimming in a deep clear ocean? The answer is fear of the unknown and our primeval …

First; The Good News

Since writing Breaking The Code of History, I have continued to seek enhanced concepts that explain human interactions and to better predict and understand our…

As followers of my Murrinations, from today my subscribers will be known as Arkites, after my strategy to survive this economic crash which I named The Arkent Scenario.

Governments have been putting their medical services and economies into an entirely appropriate wartime mode. However, there is a critical element of a wartime thought process that is absent.…