Murrination Insights

2.1 The All Out Arms Race

Many people have been taught that WW1 erupted by accident in 1914 through miscalculation. However, my work has revealed that nothing could be further from the…

A systemic rivalry is emerging between China’s CCP-led autocratic model and Western democratic systems, reflecting a long-standing historical pattern in which rising powers challenge…

Extreme speculative bubbles follow repeatable behavioural patterns, where asset prices detach from underlying value, expand through mass participation and financial innovation, and…

Team Boris did a fabulous job of completing the Brexit process against all the odds and created as smooth a transition as possible into the new Global Britain. During the negotiations, the one…

Speculative bubbles in new asset classes follow consistent psychological and structural patterns, where rapid price appreciation driven by belief and momentum ultimately gives way to…

There is now no doubt that over the past months the market has been in the grip of a Bubble of all Things. Where money that was printed on a scale never seen before has …

The above image is the Fall of Constantinople (May 29, 1453)

The dwindling Byzantine Empire came to an end when the Ottomans breached Constantinople's ancient…

Following a recent presentation, I thought you might be interested in some of Global Forecasters Predictions and services.You can find the audio here and the associated …

Systemic failures exposed by the pandemic have revealed structural weaknesses in the UK healthcare system, creating the conditions for large-scale reform driven by efficiency,…

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During our Murrinations since the pandemic outbreak in early January, we have been well ahead of the curve and predicted the unfolding of events well ahead of time. This has included the…

Public tolerance of leadership quality follows cyclical patterns, where periods of decline normalise incompetence until rising national pressure forces a shift back toward…

Obama's poor leadership compounded America's already decreasing national energy and irrevocably weakened the American hegemony, a decline that was initially obscured by post-Cold War hubris.…

Despite the recent polls suggesting that some 52% of Scots favour independence, I predict Scotland will not vote to leave the Union. The background to this prediction is given in my four part…

Whatever collective revolutionary emotions have been naturally in evidence in the Russian population, there is no doubt they have been skilfully amplified by Western intelligence…

Our March 2020 prediction that Putin could be unseated in the year ahead is looking to be accurate Ten Predictions For The Rest of 2020.

This Global Forecaster…

Brexit marks a structural break in the European balance of power, exposing underlying weaknesses within the EU while enabling the UK to pursue a more adaptive and competitive global…

The EU was constructed by the French to contain a fourth German wave of expansion following WW2. Germany, as the youngest of the…

In this section, we apply our five stages of the Empire model to the decline of modern Germany.

2.1 German…

This week, Angela Merkel announced that she would be stepping down from the leadership of Germany after 16 years, following the November 2021 elections. She…

1.0 Social media networked traders have hit the news headlines this week causing alarm. However,  when they are viewed using Global Forecaster price modelling analysis…

As the UK reaches 100,000 reported deaths from the pandemic, the UK's  government and press have recognised this gruesome milestone. A statistical estimate is that those…

Those that have read my Theory of Anti Entropy of Human Systems will appreciate that entropy impacts are cumulative on a human social structure. Wars,…

Firstly, I must comment on the excellent words of President Biden over the past 48 hours. There is no doubt that his intentions are good, and his pandemic plans reflect reality. Most critically, …

Understanding The Manifestation of National Energy

National energy is a term I use in association with the location of a nation or large social system in its…

The emergence of new COVID variants marks a shift from a single vaccination challenge to a prolonged mutation-driven pandemic requiring tighter borders, faster detection, and…

After beginning 2021 with optimism, the world faces a convergence of political, economic, and geopolitical crises that threaten to accelerate instability across the West while…

The aftermath of the 2020 US election exposed deep fractures within American democracy, culminating in the storming of the Capitol and raising fears of escalating political…

The pandemic requires a wartime grand strategy, combining national mobilisation, scientific rigour, economic adaptation, border control, mass vaccination, and global coordination to…

The pandemic has exposed the weakness of declining Western systems and the danger of responding to a long-term viral war with short-term hope rather than a realistic wartime strategy…

The trade deal with the UK and EU is a remarkable achievement for the Boris-Frost duo. Despite the Draconian and punitive negotiating stance employed by Barnier, they…

The above images show the mutational development and spread of the virus to date. Note how many mutations…

​The location of American fleets is an excellent way of understanding who America sees as a potential threat. Until 2019 the American Navy's numbered fleets were the 3rd…

A no-deal Brexit is presented not as a national failure, but as the cleanest route to restoring British sovereignty, escaping EU control mechanisms, and forcing Britain into a more…

The Now Or Never Campaign

In 2015, appalled by the government's defence review that effectively…

As the pandemic devastates America and Europe, China’s rapid recovery and aggressive response to scrutiny raise urgent questions about the origins of the Wuhan virus and the CCP’s…

The New Global Britain, A Time of New Heroes

Britain, as described earlier, has entered a time of expansion. New heroes yet to be recognised will very much be a…

 5.0 Decline and the Rise of the Anti-Heroes.

We all have a clear picture of heroes and anti-heroes ingrained in our minds. Every member of a human society will have such archetypes. Using…

Britain faces a severe economic crisis created by the pandemic response, rising debt, and collapsing growth, but unlike the EU and America it still has the national energy and…

Good leadership requires complex problems be solved by identifying variables, correctly weighting those with the greatest impact and prioritising their resolution to minimise the effect of entropy…

The rise and decline of empires produces different kinds of heroes, with each phase of national development creating the leaders, soldiers, reformers, and anti-heroes suited to that…

America’s decline is accelerating beneath inflated markets, with five interconnected crises threatening to break into the open.

1.0 Whilst the Fed has been printing money and…

Heroes save us from danger. In return, we express our gratitude by elevating them to icons within society. In so doing we seek to encourage the emulation of similar…

I would like to share my concept of leadership in the expanding phase of my Five Phases model. The expanding phase in the cycle is where leadership is the most dynamic…

We have been witnessing a leadership crisis in America since the Clinton era, a crisis that has been taken to new heights of dysfunction by Trump.  Simultaneously, the…

When President Obama announced the full withdrawal of troops from Iraq on 21 October 2011 he left a vacuum. It was quickly filled by ISIS (ISIL), an extreme and brutal…

Biden won. A vaccine is on the way to save us from the pandemic. The Equity markets have reached their peaks in the US and Europe since the March lows.

We have…

Europe’s pandemic response is being driven by the wrong measurements, with governments focusing on infections rather than excess deaths and risking severe economic damage through…

We have some very tough times ahead.

The prefect storm of my phase three Arkent scenario, is now upon us as the massive government interventions of the summer…

The End of Globalisation As We Knew It

Before World War 1 broke out in 1914, the world had reached a new peak in global trading and economic integration. At this time many liberals wrongly…

The Second Cold War with China has begun, marking the start of a Great Bifurcation between the democratic world and the authoritarian China-Russia axis. This geopolitical schism…

Well, we’re about to find out!

My prediction, dating back to late January this year, that Biden would win on wealth distribution politics appears to be on track. Coupled with this was my…

Surveillance Is A Potentially Hostile Act

This includes state surveillance and criminal surveillance. In this regard, the first line of defence is to recognise you are being surveyed. This…

The global financial system is entering a major turning point, as America’s decline, China’s rise, and decades of money printing combine to end the asset bubble that has supported…

7.1 The Kinetic Threat to Britain

The conclusion concerning the decisions about to be taken in this 2020 Strategic Defence Review is that for the fourth time in 110 years Britain faces an…

6.1 The Need for a Revolution in the Ministry Of Defence

The relationship between the Ministry of…

5.1 Historical Perspectives

Historically, democracies have not been good at anticipating rising aggressor nations and preparing a commensurately…

4.1 The Requirement For The UK's Key Strategic Defence Capabilities Commensurate With The Foreign Policy Strategy

There are four key areas relating to the defence commands. The following…

Britain’s departure from the EU marks more than a constitutional break; it signals a return to its historic role as a sovereign maritime power. In a world defined by American decline…

Britain stands at a critical strategic moment. After decades of defence cuts, rising threats from China and Russia, and the return of Britain to an independent global maritime role,…

1.1 Rising Threats

There are times in history where threats remain latent and multiple scenario planning is applicable. However, today, based on the thesis outlined in ‘Breaking the Code…

This is the second Global Forecaster Strategic Defence Review. It's origins date back to the disastrous government review of 2015 where it was clear to me that both our political and…

The mishandling of the pandemic response by Boris and his government can only be described as disastrous. The string of appalling late responses, misjudgments and random…

Over the past two decades, the West has repeatedly signalled weakness through failed interventions, reduced defence capability and a lack of political will. To expansive powers such…

The lessons of Britain’s past wars remain directly relevant today. World War I, World War II and the Cold War all show that peace is preserved not by weakness or ambiguity, but by…

Britain’s victories in the two World Wars often obscure a more uncomfortable truth: in both 1914 and 1939, the nation entered conflict dangerously underprepared. Those mistakes were…

The pandemic response should be guided by evidence rather than fear. With an autumn second wave likely, governments need to reassess lockdown policies, focus on meaningful data such…

The Western pandemic response reflects a wider pattern of decline: old systems becoming rigid, fearful and unable to adapt effectively under pressure. Rather than acting with…

The start of September was marked by my predicted blow-off high in the US stock markets that has burst one of the greatest equity bubbles of all time.

The three warning signals came in the…

What do flat taxes, the Defence Review, the UK's pandemic strategy and a no-deal Brexit have in common? They all require bold strategies to maximise the UK's outcomes.…

11.1 Independence is an emotional issue

Only recently did Britain leave the EU after years of internal debate and external negotiations…

The Scottish National Party is a nationalist and social-democratic political party founded in Edinburgh in 1934. By the mid-1930s, the decline of the…

Scotland's population demographics tell an interesting story. They have been very constant throughout the 20th century; they were 4.8 million in…